Paul
Goble
Staunton, June 8 – Because the protests
against the construction of a cathedral in Yekaterinburg’s main square lasted
as long as they did, attracted the attention of the Moscow media, and prompted
Vladimir Putin to intervene in a way which suggested he felt compelled to make
concessions, many Russian liberals have read them as heralding a Russian
Maidan.
But that is a mistake, Kseniya
Kirillova says, because the protests in the Urals city were about a signally
local issue, and “dividing society on secondary questions is an effective
tactic for warding off a revolution,” one that would challenge the power of the
center rather than continue to appeal to it (svoboda.org/a/29976906.html).
The US-based Russian journalist who
comes from Yekaterinburg points out that “for an anti-system protest to reach
critical mass, first, many non-indifferent citizens must unity, and second,
they must come to the recognition that the powers that be are not capable of
fulfilling their key demands.”
“If, however, the protest activists,
not able to reach agreement among themselves, will appeal to the authorities as
the only means of solving problems, then their protest activity will never go
beyond the limits of the ‘local’ level,” Kirillova says; and such local
protests are not a threat to the regime. Indeed, they may even help it distract
people from the central issues.
It is uncertain whether the Kremlin
in fact promoted these protests both to improve its own image relative to that
of the odious Russian Orthodox hierarchy and to test out additional means of “cleansing”
the streets of opposition figures or whether it simply took advantage of a
situation that was presented to it. But regardless, this conclusion stands, she
continues.
To say that, Kirillova suggests, in
no way is to minimize the courage of the Yekaterinburg residents who sought to
preserve their city. “However, it is important to understand that the authorities
will use any pretext to divide active citizens and clarify for the powers that
be the resources of those protesting.”
In that way, she says, “the powers that
be will be better prepared for actions in which they see more serious threats
to themselves.”
No one in Moscow – neither the
Kremlin nor the opposition -- should have been surprised by the protests in the
Urals city. People there have opposed plans to build a new cathedral in Yekaterinburg’s
center for almost a decade, although this time many were struck by the willingness
of people to continue their protests for many days rather than disperse
quickly.
“The Russian Orthodox church and the
local authorities responded to the angry local residents ‘as Yanukovich did’ in
Ukraine,” thus giving support to those who saw these protests as the beginning
of a Maidan. And as in Ukraine, the repressive actions of the authorities only
further enraged the protesters and added to their number.
But what these actions did not do
was change the nature of the protest from being one about a local issue into a
national one. Indeed, Kirillova says, that has been the case all along, with the
authorities taking actions that have focused attention on them and the church
rather than on the Kremlin.
There are various reasons the local
authorities have behaved that way, including simple incompetence and a desire
to please oligarchs close to the church. But “one can advance a more
conspiratorial theory that the Kremlin consciously allowed the popular
dissatisfaction to spill into the streets.”
That may seem “fantastic,” but there
is a compelling logic to it, Kirillova argues.
From the beginning, she says, “it was obvious that the city action,
called forth exclusively by local causes could not grow into an all-Russian one
and therefore was relatively harmless.” More to the point, it could be used as
it was to make Putin look good relative to the church.
But most important, the protests
could divide the population, with the protesters remaining against the church
but others forming new organizations to promote it, again a division that helps
the powers that be in Moscow because it doesn’t threaten them (cf. windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2019/05/backers-of-cathedral-project-in.html).
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