Paul
Goble
Staunton, January 20 – In comparison
with the residents of other countries, Russians favor a strong hand at the top
of their state, but this attitude has varied over time and often rapidly
changes when a genuine alternative kind of leader and leadership presents
itself, according to a new quantitative study.
The research by Artyom Zemtsov, a
graduate student at Moscow’s Higher School of Economics, is published in the
latest issue of the Moscow journal, Politeia (politeia.ru/files/articles/rus/Politeia-2019-4(95)-87-110.pdf)
and by the Liberal Mission Foundation (liberal.ru/publications/silnaya-ruka-avtoritarnost-v-politicheskoi-kulture-sovremennyh-rossiyan).
Drawing on Western studies of
authoritarian attitudes and using poll data collected by the Levada Center,
Zemtsov tests four hypotheses: first, “authoritarian normative views enjoy in a
stable fashion over time greater support from Russians than do non-authoritarian
ones;” second, “when alternatives to ‘a strong hand’ are offered to
individuals, their support for that falls;” third, support for authoritarianism
varies by demographic variables; and fourth, “the influence [of these] on the
normative views toward ‘the strong hand’ are not the same.”
According to Zemtsov, his first
hypothesis is largely confirmed; but “at the same time it would be incorrect to
speak about the dominance of authoritarian orientations among Russians as a
certain constant.” At the end of Soviet times, when Russians “massively
supported democratic transitions and there were almost two times more opponents
of ‘a strong hand’ than supporters.”
That provides support for the second
hypothesis: when Russians are given a real alternative to a strong hand, many
of them are likely to shift to it. The third hypothesis is confirmed only in
part as the impact of demographic variables is less than is typically the case
in other countries.
But at the same time, the fourth
hypothesis is supported because Russians in many groups are more prepared to
support a strong hand in the abstract than an actual one while Russians in
others are more inclined to support a particular embodiment of a strong hand
than the more general principle.
Zemtsov says that this pattern reflects the
working of the political system on attitudes as much as of attitudes on the
political system and suggests that it is possible to rephrase the observation
of Stein Rokkan and Angus Campbell and say “authoritarianism in the political
culture of Russians harmonizes with the institutional structure of the
authoritarian regime.”
There are many sources of support
for a strong hand among Russians, the investigator says. Among them are
cultural inertia, the sacred nature of the image of a strong leader in Russian
history, pragmatic calculations and an adaptive strategy to the existing order
and a desire to show support for the status quo.
But it must always be kept in mind,
Zemtsov concludes, that “despite the really high popularity of this mythogem
[in the Russian Federation,] as soon as present-day Russians are offered
alternatives to ‘a strong hand,’ support for that form of rule significantly
declines,” a warning to its rulers and a basis for at least some optimism about
the future.
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