Paul
Goble
Staunton, February 6 – Most
discussions about what might happen if Alyaksandr Lukashenka agreed to have
Belarus become part of the Russian Federation focus on the reaction of the West
or of other post-Soviet states and assume that the Belarusians would more or
less passively accept such a new state of affairs.
But Rosbalt commentator
Mikhail Petrovsky, on the basis of interviews with three leading Belarusian
experts and his own research, says that Moscow would face serious problems with
Belarusians if they were absorbed into Russia and that these problems might
vitiate any positive consequences of such an action (rosbalt.ru/world/2020/01/31/1825501.html).
Even if “’many’” Belarusians might
welcome a union with Russia, “’many’ still does not mean ‘a majority,’” the
Rosbalt commentator says. And consequently, should Lukashenka and Putin agree
on a union, Moscow would find itself with far fewer allies on the ground than
it might hope given that Belarus doesn’t have a Russian community committed to “’return.’”
Instead, the situation would be “just
the reverse,” he continues. “Some Russians, when going on pensions, more to the
neighboring republic because there it is cheaper, more comfortable and more
secure to live given Belarusian prices.”
More to the point, the Belarusians, “in
contrast to the Russians” aren’t antagonistic
to Europe: “Belarus is the world leader in the percent of the population with
Shengen visas,” and “people understand that if their country is included in the
Russian Federation, they would lose all this,” something that declaring that “’Crimea
is ours!’” won’t provide compensation.
Some in Moscow think that these
problems could be compensated for by giving the Belarusians a great deal of
autonomy, but that would not only create a bidding war with Belarusians but
encourage other non-Russian nations within the country to demand greater
autonomy as well, raising the question of “the real federalization of the rest
of the RF.”
Three Belarusian leaders with whom
Petrovsky spoke only add to this list of problems. Olga Karach, head of the Our
Home civic campaign in Vitebsk, says Belarusians would be “drowned” economically
in the much larger country but would gain greater freedoms given that
Belarusian law is far more repressive than Russian.
But that works against Moscow, she
says. Belarusians included in Russia
would likely behave as children do when a strict teacher is replaced by a “softer
and more liberal” one – they would act in the most insubordinate ways. They
would protest more, and officials would engage in “sabotage.”
And that is all the more likely, Karach
continues, because over the 28 years of independence, Belarusian officials have
come to view inclusion within the Russian Federation as “the most unfavorable
scenario.” They have gotten used to being big fish in a little pond rather than
small fish in a big one.
Alena Anisim, a member of Belarus’
House of Representatives, says that another factor working against Moscow in
the event of unification is that “Belarus has always been different from Russia
mentally.” They have positive views of law and democracy, they are more
informed by Christianity, and they don’t want to tell others how to live.
More to the point, she continues, “even
in Soviet times, few Belarusians considered Russia their motherland.” As a
result, Moscow would not be restoring something if it tried to make Belarusians
into Russians but working to create something entirely new, a far more
difficult task.
And Belarusian political analyst
Sergey Martselev says that another important difference is that Belarusians are
more committed to multi-culturalism and tolerance than Russians, although they have
not experienced the impact of the influx of culturally different peoples from
Central Asia and the North Caucasus.
Few Belarusians are going to want to
serve in the Russian military given the history of dedovshchina on an
ethnic basis there and the lack of any interest among Belarusians of fighting
wars abroad. “Why should they die for alien interests?”
And the two nations have a very
different attitude toward public and private hygiene, Martselev says. Belarusians are committed to
cleanliness and order in themselves and in the world around them; Russians are
much less so.
Consequently, even though some in
Belarus’ force structures might welcome inclusion, many won’t. “In the case of
the annexation of Belarusian territories, Russia will thus get a number of
internal threats, ranging from sabotage and ending with diversionary actions”
by those who remain patriots.
“In general,” Marselev says, “the ‘average’
Belarusian may speak Russian and even watch Russian propaganda. But he is a
villager in his way of thinking. He poorly tolerates those who come as guests
but feel themselves to be masters.” Moscow needs to think about all this
because its real problems will only begin if it tries to annex Belarus.
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