Paul
Goble
Staunton, May 7 – Although the
percentage of Russians who say they will take part in an eventually vote on
Vladimir Putin’s proposed constitutional amendments has risen since February,
the share who say they will vote for them is now less than 50 percent and the
share declaring they will vote against is almost a third, according to a new
Levada Center poll.
Moreover, more than one in every
five Russians told pollsters that they found it difficult to say whether they
would vote for or against the measure, an indication that absent enormous
propaganda efforts, administrative pressure, and outright falsification, the
Kremlin may find it difficult to win approval of the amendments that would
lengthen Putin’s time in office.
Russians were asked in the April 20
poll “if voting on the amendments to the Constitutions takes place in the
coming months, will you take part?” Nineteen
percent said no or probably not; 65 percent said yes or probably yes (levada.ru/2020/05/06/obshherossijskoe-golosovanie-po-popravkam-v-konstitutsiyu-2/).
That compares to the results of a
similar poll in March, when 27 percent said they would not or probably would
not take part, while 54 percent said they would or probably would do so.
In the more recent survey, Russians
were also asked whether they would vote for or against the amendments.
Forty-seven percent said they would vote for, 31 percent against, and 22
percent said it was difficult for them to answer. A month earlier, those
numbers were 40, 34, and 26 percent respectively.
Of those who said they won’t take
part or probably want, opponents outnumbered supporters 56 to 18 percent. Of
those who said they weren’t sure they would take part, the relationship of the
two was closer: 23 percent against and 36 percent for; and among those certain
or likely to take part, 58 percent were for the amendments and 25 percent
against.
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