Saturday, June 6, 2020

Pandemic Deaths in Russia May Be Ten Times Official Figures and Economic Situation There Much Worse as Well


Paul Goble

            Staunton, June 3 – Russian outlets have given prominent coverage to a Reuters report (ru.reuters.com/article/topNews/idRUKBN23A2JU-ORUTP) that the actual number of coronavirus deaths in Russia may be as much as 10 times official figures and that Moscow is deliberately holding back bad economic news lest the population become agitated.

            But despite government efforts to understate both, the numbers being released are depressing enough. Today, Russia registered 8536 new cases of coronavirus infection, bringing the national total to 432,277 (kasparov.ru/material.php?id=5ED75457897FD), even though the WHO said Russia had “plateaued” (ura.news/news/1052434871).

            The Russian media are focusing primarily on the issue of when restrictions will be lifted. Approximately half of all Russian regions have begun to ease these limits (tass.ru/obschestvo/8636803), but in many places, medical officials say that the regions should not be taking this step yet (agoniya.eu/archives/5860).

            And some officials say that the Russian government does not plan to lift all pandemic restrictions until July 2021 (interfax.ru/russia/711381), although it is unclear which ones will remain in place that long and which will be lifted.

As one would expect, the entire process has become enmeshed in politics, most prominently in disputes between the prime minister and the mayor of Moscow over how to handle the pandemic and of course over who will be seen as taking the most popular stand (iarex.ru/articles/75530.html and iarex.ru/articles/75528.html).

The economic situation is dire. More than two million Russians are now officially unemployed, and some experts project their number to exceed 10 to 15 percent of the workforce before the pandemic ends (pro.rbc.ru/demo/5ed777499a7947704759e501). Real incomes are falling and likely to fall even further (dcenter.hse.ru/mirror/pubs/share/direct/369947599.pdf).

Experts and politicians are now saying that unless the government changes course and provides direct assistance to the population, the future will be dire indeed (svpressa.ru/society/article/267164/). And ever more commentators are expressing skepticism that the Russian government will take the necessary steps (krizis-kopilka.ru/archives/76909).

Two critiques today were especially sharp. Deputy Prime Minister Yury Borisov says the government’s reserve fund have not been used as they could and should have been (iarex.ru/news/75539.html), and Natalya Shavshukova, cofounder of the School of Local Self-Administration says that the incumbent government isn’t capable of preventing a Great Depression (krizis-kopilka.ru/archives/76907).

The difficult process of clawing back power from regional officials who have grown accustomed during the pandemic to acting on their own has begun, with some progress, much resistance and even more anger on both sides (novayagazeta.ru/articles/2020/06/03/85678-tsarek-na-otshibe).

And some Duma deputies have added their voices to those of commentators and human rights activists who have been saying for weeks that the Kremlin is using the pandemic to put in place even more restrictive arrangements that are unlikely to be lifted even after the coronavirus passes (regions.ru/news/2628419/).

Meanwhile, other coronavirus-related news from Russia includes:

·         Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov says that by the time Russians vote on the constitutional amendments on July 1 the epidemiological situation will be “significantly better than now” (iarex.ru/news/75529.html).

·         During the pandemic, Russians have not been immunizing their children against other diseases, making it likely that there will be an upsurge of these later this year, medical experts say (rosbalt.ru/moscow/2020/06/03/1847042.html).

·         Moscow’s six mosques will resume more or less normal operation on June 6, Sheikh Ravil Gaynutdin says (http://www.islamsng.com/rus/news/15787).

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