Paul
Goble
Staunton, September 7 – Even though
there is every indication that the ceasefire has already been broken and that
Vladimir Putin had no intention of living up to its promise of a move toward
peace, Ukrainians are confronted with the challenge of considering how best to
use the time it may give them to strengthen Ukraine and prepare for Putin’s
next move.
Ukraine’s LIGA BiznesInform news
agency asked six individuals closely involved with or monitoring the situation
exactly that question given the fact that few doubt that this ceasefire like so
many others will be shaky and temporary (news.liga.net/articles/politics/3193050-prekrashchenie_ognya_v_donbasse_zachem_eto_nuzhno.htm).
Boris Filatov, deputy governor of
Dneprpetrovsk Oblast, says that Ukraine must dig in and re-arm and “immediately
carry out reforms” in the military. Moreover, Ukrainian officials must explain
to the insurgents that “Russia does not intend to feed them or invest money in
their territories.” Only Ukraine is ready to do that.
Further, he says, Ukraine’s regions
must ensure that EU money comes to and through them rather than through Kyiv so
that corrupt elements in the Ukrainian capital won’t be able to divert it.
In short, he says, Ukraine “has to
proceed along the path of Chechnya in the Donbas” because “there is no other
way out.” It must give amnesties and
work down “de-separatization” just as Moscow did in Chechnya a decade ago. Ukraine
must not deal with “military criminals, but for the preservation of territorial
integrity, it is necessary to be able to show the local population the benefits
of remaining within Ukraine.”
Andreas Umland, a German political
analyst resident in Kyiv, says that it is possible the ceasefire will last a
long time. During that period, he suggests, Ukraine must focus on documenting
exactly what has happened and who is to blame because far too many people in
Russia and the West think that what has occurred is a civil war rather than a
Russian invasion.
Vadim Grib, a conflict specialist,
says that the ceasefire is “without a doubt a positive step,” something that “became
possible thanks to the heroic efforts of our army and self-defense fighters
plus the active support of the main world leaders and our people.”
Putin obviously ordered his agents
in Ukraine to agree, Grib continues, “but I wouldn’t consider this as a final
agreement because for that to occur, it must be with Putin and not with his
puppets.” That may not happen anytime soon because Putin is “hardly satisfied”
by President Petr Poroshenko’s plan.
“Therefore,” Grib says, he “considers
this ceasefire as an unqualified victory for [Ukrainian] diplomacy” given that
it the document said nothing about the two things Putin cares most about: the
seizure of Crimea and the expansion of NATO.
Now is the time to talk, he
continues, because “at present, [Kyiv] has some quite serious cards in its hand
and Putin undoubtedly understand this.” Ukraine’s focus must be “not to
surrender the Donbas and allow Putin to preserve his face before his voters.” In saying that, one isn’t talking about
peace, of course.
The back and forth is “only
beginning,” Grib says, and Ukraine must proceed in a way that its losses so far
are “not in vain” and that “the entire world will draw a corresponding lesson
having reviewed its approach to international security and the defense of
countries from the actions of aggressors.”
Taras Berezovets, a political
analyst, says the ceasefire was “a difficult but necessary decision,” but what
is important is “not to fall under the power of illusions.” There won’t be a
permanent ceasefire, the militants and Russian forces will continue to attack,
and pro-Moscow forces inside Ukraine will continue their “terror against ‘enemies
of the people.’”
Ukraine, he says, must use any time
it has to reform its armed forces, use aid from NATO, and prepare for partisan
war throughout Ukraine. Russia isn’t
going to live up to the ceasefire, but Ukraine can play for time by denying the
obvious even while it prepares to resist it, Berezovets says.
Such “’a ceasefire,’” he suggests, “could
last for months. But during that period, “Putin will not full his forces out of
the Donbas. It is possible they will become fewer. But they will remain,” and
that is something Ukraine has to focus on.
Yury Butusov, a
journalist, says that Ukraine must use the ceasefire to reform its government
administration, reducing bureaucracy by 20 to 40 percent and “prepare the army
for war by taking into account the mistakes and experience” of recent
days. It must strengthen itself because “the
weaker and slower we will be [in that regard], the sooner the ceasefire will
end.”
He
stresses that Kyiv must not just focus on the east but on the entire country. “There
need not be any special Donbas reforms. There must be reforms in Ukraine as a
whole.”
And
Anton Gerashchenko, an advisor to Ukraine’s interior minister, says that
Ukraine “must arm themselves and create a powerful army and security system” by
spending “a minimum of one-sixth and better one-fifth” of it budget on defense
and security. The Interior Ministry must be “transformed into a law enforcement
rather than punitive organ.”
He concludes by suggesting
that the length of the ceasefire will depend on how willing Kyiv is to go along
with what Putin wants. If it does, “then the ceasefire will be a long one. If
not, then again there will be provocations and the seizure of our territory.”
No comments:
Post a Comment