Paul
Goble
Staunton, December 4 – The violence
overnight in the Chechen capital not only underscores the fragility of peace in
the North Caucasus but represents “a last warning” to Vladimir Putin that he
must change course or face a future in which he will be searching for political
asylum somewhere outside of Russia, according to Vladimir Ogryzko.
Ogryzko, a Kyiv commentator who
earlier served as Ukraine’s foreign minister, says in “Novoye vremya” today
that “the events in Grozny are the latest ‘little bell’ for Putin and his
regime, which show that the Kremlin must immediately rethink the situation” and
change course (nvua.net/opinion/ogryzko/sobytiya-v-groznom-poslednee-preduprezhdenie-dlya-putina-23549.html).
“A continuation of Moscow’s [current]
aggressive policy will lead to only one thing: the acceleration of the
disintegration of Russia into parts,” he says. Thinking people in the Russian
regime must recognize this, and the longer they delay acting, “the greater the
probability will be for the strengthening of centrifugal trends and the
appearance of new sources of conflict.”
Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov showed that he does not
understand the situation by leaving his capital and going to Moscow to listen
to Putin, “despite the events in Grozny.”
And this in and of itself is one more indication that “both the central
and regional Russian leadership is completely lacking in an adequate
understanding” of what they now face.
To put it most bluntly, Ogryzko
continues, “the problems of the Russian Federation are beginning to shift from
the economic area to the political one, with all the negative consequences
which can in a short time cast doubt on the fact of the existence of Russia.”
All of Moscow’s muscle flexing cannot solve the problem. Indeed, it may only
make it worse.
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