Rural Latvia Emptying Out, Presenting Riga with Another Security Challenge

Paul Goble

 

            Staunton, March 3 – Low birthrates and the flight of young people to work elsewhere in Europe are driving down both the urban and rural population of the Republic of Latvia, with its total now roughly equivalent to where it was a century ago and with European experts predicting a further decline of 20 percent within five years.

 

            Latvia is not an exception in the region, but three aspects of this demographic decline are especially worrisome: the rural part of the country is emptying out with 84 villages having ceased to exist in the last year alone, many of those headed West are ethnic Russians who do not like Riga’s language policies, and the decline is already affecting economic growth.

 

            While some Latvians may welcome the departure of ethnic Russians who were moved into that Baltic republic in large numbers during the Soviet occupation, none of them can be happy about the consequences of the other two, especially in the current international environment (dni.ru/society/2015/3/2/296497.html).

 

            In many countries, young people are leaving rural areas for the cities, but in Latvia, demographers say, many of the young – and especially young Russian speakers – are heading not for Riga, whose population is falling, or other urban areas within the country but to other countries in the EU, something citizens and non-citizens alike can do without visas.

 

            This hollowing out of rural areas has serious consequences for Latvia’s security situation. On the one hand, the departure of ethnic Russians from rural areas might seem to make the country’s defense easier, but it could also lead Moscow to conclude that if it is going to move into Latgale, it will need to do so quickly or there will be no one left in whose name it can act.

 

            And on the other, countries which consist of a single large city or a few urban areas surrounded by mostly vacant rural land present an entirely different set of challenges for military and security planners, especially given that the departure of people often leads to a deterioration in roads and other forms of infrastructure as well.