Paul
Goble
Staunton, June 3 – Yesterday,
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that Russia and the United States,
despite their continuing differences over Ukraine and other matters, “are
returning to normal relations” and are doing so because they each have
interests that can be advanced only by cooperation.
Igor Morozov, a member of Russia’s
Federation Council Committee on International Relations, argues that Washington
needs this normalization not only to deal with foreign policy challenges but “for
the solution of domestic political issues,” including the 2016 US presidential
elections (vestikavkaza.ru/news/RF-i-SSHA-na-puti-k-normalnym-otnosheniyam.html).
He tells “Vestnik Kavkaza” that “the
Democratic Party needs foreign policy victories in order to launch the
candidacy of Hillary Clinton. But there in fact aren’t any. Over the period of
the administration of the Democrats, war has been going on without interruption
in the Middle East which is considered a zone of US strategic interests.”
According to the Russian senator, “the
foundation for normal relations between Russia and the US must be a pragmatic
approach,” one that reflects the reality that “the world is being transformed:
the unipolar world is ceasing to exist. Russia and China are leaders in the
formation of a multi-polar world. And the US cannot fail to take this into
account.”
“Therefore,” Morozov continues, “today
relations with America must have an open character, one of mutual interest and
the discussion of major geopolitical problems, including extremism,
international terrorism, and regional conflicts. There must be a search for
mutually acceptable resolutions.”
“Vestnik Kavkaza” also spoke with
two other Moscow specialists on what Lavrov and Morozov see as a rapprochement
between Moscow and Washington. Vladimir
Olenchenko, a European specialist at MGIMO, stresses that now “the development
of Russian-American relations is not a goal in itself.”
In his view, Washington needs it
more than Moscow does, and to support his contention, he cites the world of
Henry Kissinger who “noted that in any contacts with any allies or opponents
everywhere and always the question arises: what do the Russians think? Russia’s
presence in the world is global and often has decisive importance.”
A recollection of that reality,
Olenchenko says, is leading Americans “to return to good sense and to support
working relations with us.”
Andrey Suzdaltsev, a foreign policy
specialist at Moscow’s Higher School of Economics, agrees on the American
motivations but is more skeptical about how far things will go. “Russia is
under sanctions, and we clearly are not ready to operate within the framework
which Washington is attempting to impose.”
According to him, relations between
Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov and US Secretary of State John Kerry are now “extraordinarily
effective because here a very high level of trust exists.” Broader ties at lower levels, he implies, are
still far from what Moscow would like to see.
How accurate these Moscow
assessments are, of course, is open to question, but the general thrust, that
Washington is now doing the seeking to improve relations because of its own
autonomous needs and that Moscow can afford to wait to see what the US will
offer next, undoubtedly reflects widespread thinking in the Russian government.
And that sense, whatever its
accuracy, is likely to guide the Kremlin’s behavior in the coming weeks and
thus create a situation in which Kremlin-promoted expectations of an
improvement in East-West ties may make some in Washington ready to make additional
concessions while Moscow simply waits for the US side to do so.
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