Paul
Goble
Staunton, July 5 – “Putin has
finally decided” to block all of the ways out from “the dead end into which he
has driven himself and Russia,” Andrey Illarionov says, prompting the West to
oppose him more vigorously, creating a disaster for Russia, and setting the
stage for the ultimate restoration of Ukrainian control over the Donbas and
Crimea.
The Kremlin leader’s use of nuclear
blackmail led the leaders of Germany and France to sign the Minsk accords, the
Russian commentator says, but his repeated use of the same tactic has forced
the West to adopt a confrontational strategy given the dangers Putin’s policy
entails (obozrevatel.com/politics/85041-putin-zabarrikadiroval-vyihod-iz-tupika-v-kotoryij-sam-sebya-zagnal-illarionov.htm).
Putin
continues to try to present this situation as “a dead end into which he
supposedly has been driven,” Illarionov continues. But “in fact, it was not the
West that drove him into this corner but he himself. More than that, he continues in this
direction ever further and deeper,” while carefully “barricading” Russia from
any of the ways out he might have pursued.
Given
that Russia has nuclear weapons and a 700,000-man army, the commentator says, that
alone “forces millions of people throughout the entire world to be afraid” of
what the Kremlin may do next.”
“That
is the tragedy of the present situation,” Illarionov says, “because hundreds of
millions of people directly depend on Putin. Their lives, health and well-being
really depend on the decisions of one man. But the problem is that in the
contemporary world, ordinary citizens, the expert community and the leaders of
the Western countries don’t know how to respond.”
As
a result, “the only way out of this situation” is likely to be “a continuation of
the confrontation” which has plunged the world into a Cold War and a situation which
“could take on other hotter forms.” And
that reality, Illarionov says, is “not susceptible to easy and simple
predicitons.”
That
in turn means that “this war will have various stages. But at its end, Ukraine
will regain control over the occupied territories,” the commentator says,
adding that he is “very much concerned that for Russia this will not be the
only geopolitical consequences of the end of this confrontation.”
Illarionov
analyzes Putin from the perspective of someone who has consistently opposed the
Kremlin leader’s actions in Ukraine. But what is truly frightening is some who
have supported Putin look at the same situation he does and conclude that Putin
must get out of the current impasse by going over to the offensive.
One
such writer, Aleksey Anpilogov, in an article in Aleksandr Prokhanov’s “Zavtra,”
pointedly asks “Is it possible to win a war while sitting in a fortress? Even if this fortress covers a sixth of the
earth’s surface, has 146 million residents, and whose ancestors have left it a powerful
arsenal of conventional and nuclear arms?” (zavtra.ru/content/view/kiev-3/).
The greatest
theoreticians of war, he continues, say otherwise. They argue that “wars have
always been won exclusively by attacks,” and those who adopt a defensive position
typically create a situation in which “the army and people sitting in a
fortress lose their opportunities for action day by day, exhaust their
resources and demoralize their soldiers.”
The conflict between Russia and the West
“isn’t going to disappear. War and the siege of the fortress will be extended
just as Alarich’s barbarians continued the siege of Rome even after various ‘armistices’
and declarations about ‘eternal friendship.’”
At the end of it, “’the thousand-year Rome’” was overwhelmed by the
barbarians marching through its streets.
One wants to believe, Anpilogov
continues, that “the Russian elite understands this and doesn’t have any
illusions regarding the iron curtain of the West” which may take on many forms
but which will never be eliminated as long as the two are locked in
confrontation.
“Russia has no friends in Kyiv. But
both the West and Russia have interests there which must be achieved. The
interest of Russia is in the lifting of the blockade from its fortress – but unfortunately
for this to happen, one must attack.” Acting as if Russia can simply sit in its
fortress and wait is no way to win a war, he concludes.
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