Paul
Goble
Staunton, October 3 – The Kremlin is
now putting in place a new strategy to deal with shaky allies like Belarus and
Armenia: encourage protests against their governments in order that the latter
will crack down in ways that will alienate the West and force these countries
back into Moscow’s embrace, according to Yuri Tsarik.
The analyst at the Minsk Center for
Strategic and Foreign Policy Questions says that “to frighten the Belarusian
authorities with ‘protests, to provoke them to harsh actions, to stop the
normalization of relations with the West and then to emerge as the only
guarantor of security is [Moscow’s] ‘Crimean’ scenario for Belarus” (belaruspartisan.org/politic/350986/ and nmnby.eu/news/analytics/6116.html).
Precisely what that would look like
in Belarus is now very much on view in Yerevan, where opposition groups and the
government have been fighting one another for the last few weeks. That Moscow
is applying this strategy in Armenia means that Belarusians must take seriously
the possibility that it will soon be applied in their country as well.
Armenia has another critical lesson
for Minsk as well. Agreeing to have a Russian military base on one’s national
territory is no guarantee that Moscow will not make use of its leverage to
destabilize and even replace the government that agreed to that basing, Tsarik
continues.
There is some evidence that the
Belarusian authorities are taking this analysis seriously. Earlier this week,
after largely ignoring the issue for some months, Belarusian state media rose, in
the words of the Belaruspartisan portal, “up in arms” about the Russian “patriotic”
training camps in Belarus (belaruspartisan.org/politic/350913/).
(For background on
these camps, Russia’s role in them, and the ideological messages they are
conveying to young Belarusians, see windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2015/11/russian-orthodox-church-in-belarus.html
and windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2016/05/moscow-now-training-belarusians-in.html.)
“Considering that in the media
censored by the authorities not one word is spoken by accident,”
Belaruspartisan says, “one must conclude that the Belarusian regime is
seriously concerned by Russian ‘patriotic’ education of Belarusian youths and
possibly also by pro-Russian attitudes in Belarus as a whole.”
But Tsarik’s analysis of the Armenian
situation suggests that the instability Moscow wants in a country that isn’t
following its line could come from those committed to anti-Russian positions.
The only thing Moscow is interested in, according to Tsarik, is provoking a
harsh government response that will leave the regimes with nowhere to turn but
Russia.
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