Paul
Goble
Staunton, April 7 – The new
sanctions the US has announced will hurt the Russian oligarchs but they will
not lead to a conspiracy against Putin because “the main source of their
incomes is in Russia and they are completely dependent on the orders of the
president,” Liliya Shevtsova says.
And they haven’t and won’t lead to a
“significant change of policy” by Vladimir Putin who can be counted on to come up
with some “symmetrical or asymmetrical response in order to show that ‘We aren’t
surrendering!’” the prominent Russian analyst says (liga.net/politics/interview/liliya-shevtsova-kreml-ne-gotov-idti-na-popyatnuyu).
But that does not
mean they are unimportant or will not achieve other goals including unifying
the West, Shevtsova says. “The American
administration is still obviously searching for its own approach to the formation
of a sanctions package regarding Russia and for a mechanism of implementing it.”
This search is affected, she
suggests, by the knowledge and judgment of American officials and experts about
the resources of the Russian elite, the role of its members in the Putin
system, the desire to avoid any negative impact of sanctions on the American
establishment, and an effort to form a united front with Europe rather than go
it entirely alone.
The list of individuals and
companies on the latest sanctions list, whose release was not unexpected, shows
“how Washington understands the structure and mechanisms of power in Russia.” Some who were not included may very well be
in the future, making a final judgment problematic.
Indeed, Shevtsova continues, one
must keep in mind that at times the expectation of future actions may play a
bigger role than any actions themselves, especially as Putin can be counted on
to make up for any losses those on this list incur as a result.
The Russian
analyst rejects suggestions that Washington has changed its focus from seeking
to hurt the Russian economy by limiting its access to resources to going after
members close to Putin in hopes of sparking resistance to him within the Russian
elite or even regime change. She says
that up to now she doesn’t see any actions that suggest this.
In brief, Shevtsova concludes, it is
still not entirely clear what Washington hopes to achieve: contain Moscow, take
revenge, force Moscow to compromise or achieve Western unity. “All these goals presuppose different sanctions
packages.” But there is still no unity in the West on which one is paramount.
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