Deaths Will Exceed Births in Crimea Every Year Through 2035, Russian Occupiers Say

Paul Goble

            Staunton, December 13 – The Crimean Statistical Agency, a branch of the Russian occupation authorities, says that deaths will exceed births there by an ever-increasing amount over the next 16 years, with deaths outnumbering births in 2025 by more than two do one, a pattern that is among other thing an indictment of the Russian occupation.

            People living under the occupation are choosing to have fewer children because of the bleak conditions the occupation offers, many in prime child-bearing cohorts are leaving as well, and the number of deaths, while reflecting the aging population, is larger than it would otherwise be because of declining medical care.

            The devastating figures have been published by the occupation’s CSA at crimea.gks.ru/wps/wcm/connect/rosstat_ts/crimea/resources/78f5318044c7d07daafdaede4cdebdf4/  and are discussed today by the QHA news agency at qha.com.ua/novosti/k-2035-godu-smertnost-v-krymu-v-dva-raza-prevysit-rozhdaemost-ofitsialnye-dannye-krymstata/).

                In 2019, the number of deaths is projected to be 27,000, while the number of births about 19,000, meaning that in the absence of in-migration, the population of the Ukrainian peninsula will decline by about 8,000.  By 2035, the number of deaths is projected to rise to more than 29,000, with the number of births to less than 15,000, for a natural decrease of more than 14,000.

            The occupiers say they plan for 4127 immigrants next year, a figure that the CSA projects will fall by 100 to 200 each year, until it amounts to 3373 in 2025.        Added together, that means the population of the Crimean peninsula now under Russian occupation will fall from 1,908,949 to 1,754,304 sixteen years from now.

            Ukrainian experts say the projected natural rates of change are consistent with their models as long as the Russian occupation lasts, but they say that Moscow is arranging for the arrival of far more Russians – 100,000 since 2014 – and have forcibly expelled the more than 30 percent of Crimean Tatars who have refused Russian citizenship.  

            Moreover, these experts continue, the Russian figures do not include the thousands of uniformed FSB, Russian Guard and Russian military forces now there.