Paul
Goble
Staunton, August 14 – Vladimir Putin’s
current visit to occupied Crimea, his second, may not lead to dramatic declaration
of his plans many expect, a Ukrainian political scientist says. Instead, the
Kremlin leader may be using it to present himself as “a peacemaker” and to
force the international community to recognize Moscow’s annexation as
legitimate.
“Why should one expect something unexpected
from Putin in Crimea?” Vladimir Horbach asks. “Most likely, he will speak in generalities
and try to show to himself and to Russians that Russia has entered Crimea
forever.” In pursuit of that, he doesn’t need to say much (inforesist.org/putin-xochet-vytorgovat-u-mirovogo-obshhestva-priznanie-kryma-za-rossiej-politolog/).
Horbach observed that as things have
developed and continue to develop elsewhere in Ukraine, Putin has sought to
treat his annexation of Crimea as something of almost historical interest
beyond any challenge. Thus, going to the region and speaking with his officials
is about stressing what he wants to show as the normalcy of it all.
“The last actions of the Russian
authorities concerning the humanitarian mission to the Donbas or the lifting of
annexationist timetables about ‘federalization’ and ‘Novorossiya’ testify that
Russia is seeking a path for calming the situation” so as to ensure that it
will retain Crimea for itself.
The humanitarian convoy “may be a
distracting maneuver or it may be a provocation, he continued. “Beyond the
borders of Russia itself, trust in the declarations of the Russian authorities
has fallen so low that there is no room for it to fall further. Therefore one
must be attentive to each move of the Russian side.”
“If Putin calculates sitting at the
negotiating table,” Horbach said, “then exactly for that purpose could arise his
presenting himself in the role of a peacemaker. He is correcting his image. Not
for nothing did he at the same time play the role of mediator between Azerbaijan
and Armenia.”
While he does so, of course, the
Ukrainian analyst points out, Putin retains his opportunity for shifting in one
direction or another, but he clearly wants to present his Crimean action as
something finished and over that the outside world must simply accept and that
Ukraine must never challenge.
In recent weeks, all too many people
and officials in Western countries appear to have accepted Putin’s argument in
that regard even while they express their anger about what he has been doing
elsewhere in Ukraine. But it is
important to remember that what Putin did in Crimea was an illegal act of
aggression and occupation.
And consequently, it is worth citing
the conclusions of the legal advisory group to the Polish foreign ministry
which provides the clearest and most succinct reasons why Putin’s claims on
Crimea are illegitimate and why the international community, however much some
of its leaders would like to “look beyond” this issue, are required by international
law not to.
“In light of
international law, the incorporation of the Crimean Peninsula (Crimea),
which forms part of Ukraine’s territory, into the
Russian Federation qualifies as annexation, i.e.
the illegal acquisition of the territory of another
state by the threat or use of force,” the Polish legal advisors say (msz.gov.pl/resource/f8fbd621-55c2-4ce2-b084-410d3cfed933:JCR).
“In this respect,”
they continue, “Crimea remains an occupied territory under international law.
The annexation of Crimea by the Russian Federation has violated many treaties
and fundamental principles of international law, namely the principle of
territorial integrity of states, non-intervention into the domestic affairs of
another state, and the prohibition of the threat or use of force against another
state.”
“Consequently,
the Russian Federation has violated Ukraine’s rights which enjoy
international protection. Moreover, due to the
special legal status of the principles of
international law that have been violated, the
Russian Federation has breached its commitments
under law to the entire international community.”
And the legal
advisors stress that because of these reasons, “this community has an
international legal obligation not to recognize the illegal situation that has
been created by the illegal use of force in the form of armed aggression, and
its consequences.”
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