Paul
Goble
Staunton, August 14 – Ever more
Russians are relying on private plots at their dachas or on farms for food as
the sanctions regime tightens, an indication of when social clashes are most
likely to occur. And at the same time, ever more of them are pushing for
setting up private and religious cemeteries thereby highlighting where the
dividing lines may be.
According to experts at the Center
for Development at Moscow’s Higher School of Economics, the embargo Vladimir
Putin has imposed on food products from Western countries will hit Russia’s
poorest groups hardest and will lead to a degradation of the quality of diet of
even those who are better off (opec.ru/1734828.html).
“The
worsening of the situation in the food market together with the continuing
stagnation in the economy may force low income groups of the population to
reduce their consumption and in the future to return to the use of private
plots” to grow food for their own consumption and possible sale to others, the
experts say.
As
far as those who are in the middle or upper end of the income pyramid are
concerned, the embargo will lead to a decline in the mix and quality of the
foods they consume, a development that will have potentially serious health consequences
but not necessarily produce mass discontent.
If the share of those who come to
rely on private plots grows, however, that almost certainly will take on a
political dimension and certainly sets the time frame for a social explosion.
Societies dependent on such plots typically run out of food in the late winter
or early spring before any new food can be harvested.
That is what happened in Russia in
February 1917 when the public food supply arrangements broke down leading to
bread riots and the overthrow of the Romanov dynasty. Had that supply system
worked for only a few more weeks, it is entirely possible that the food
situation might have eased because of products from small farms.
At the very least, the symbolism of
returning to the system of private plots of Soviet times, the small areas
individuals were allowed to cultivate on their own nominally for personal use
but in fact which provided large shares of the fresh food for the entire
population, will strike at the heart of Russian assumptions about their society
and its future.
Meanwhile, in another development
not directly related but which speaks to the fragmentation of Russian society, the
Russian ministry overseeing construction and communal services is working on
draft legislation that will allow for the development of private and religious
cemeteries (aif.ru/society/law/1314392).
Not only will this raise all the
NIMBY problems those pushing for the construction of churches and mosques have
faced across the country, but it will mean that Russia’s various economic,
social and religiously-defined groups, increasingly separate in this life, will
have the chance to remain separate after death, yet another indication of
deepening social divisions.
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