Paul
Goble
Staunton, August 15 – The Russian
regime has made “the unforgivable mistake” of acting against the West in ways
that have made Russia a key part of the domestic politics of the US and
European countries and guaranteed that the West will continue its sanctions
regime against Moscow for a long time to come whatever Moscow does, Liliya
Shevtsova says.
It isn’t that Moscow has made one or
two mistakes, the Russian political analyst says. From those it might recover.
Rather, it has adopted a policy that has driven Russia into a dead end out of
which it is far from clear that it will be able to escape and that has alienated
even those like Greece with whom it has long been close (echo.msk.ru/blog/shevtsova/2258916-echo/).
“Today,” Shevtsova
continues, “Russia stands before the threat of a sanctions blockade which will
be harsher than the earlier ones.” Moscow
will adapt, of course, with the regime placing the burden on the
population. And even these sanctions won’t
destroy the Russian economy or lead to the overthrow of Putin.
The Kremlin will present that as a
victory, but what has in fact happened is anything but, Shevtsova says. What has occurred, she says, is “the
formation of a mechanism which will force the Russian ruling class to play for
its conviction that it can do whatever it wants not only at home but also
abroad.”
This mechanism “creates for Russia a
new geopolitical situation,” one in which its ability to act abroad will be
reduced and in which it will lose its access to the financial and technological
resources of the West on which it has been relying. And together that promises a less than
glorious future for Russia.
According to Shevtsova, “the Russian
authorities have committed an unforgiveable error by deciding that they can
grab America by the tail and forever make use of its patience. Having angered America, the Kremlin has not
simply transformed Russia into a factor of American political struggle.” It has done something far more serious.
“The American have done what the Russian
authorities have done at home with regard to America: an anti-Russian position
has become the criterion of American patriotism and almost a national idea.”
Moreover, Moscow’s actions have given the US which was tiring of its role as “the
global sheriff” “a shot of adrenalin.”
The chief designer of this disaster,
of course, is the Kremlin itself, Shevtsova continues. But it had help
including from the Russian political class that has constantly complained about
the demeaning attitude of the West, Moscow experts who argue “the era of the
West has ended,” Western leaders who tell Putin “what he wants to hear,” and
Western intellectuals who say Russia has been offended and thus “has the right
to break the windows of others.”
One can add to that the previous
Western system of regulating property and financial flows, a system that
Russians have been able to exploit to the point that “our ruling class feels
itself beyond the reach of any punishment and is certain that the West will
swallow all of its works.”
All this has encouraged the Kremlin
that its various “gambits” will work, but increasingly it is obvious that they
won’t. No one should forget “the paradox” displayed by Moscow’s approach to US
President Donald Trump who created the illusion of the possibility of a deal
between America and Russia” but who, because of Moscow’s actions, isn’t going
to make one.
That is because, as the Kremlin
should have known in advance, “the more Trump wants to make friends with us,”
the more the American system will impose sanctions to punish him and Russia for
any such effort.
And even when Trump leaves, this won’t
change immediately. “Whatever we do,” Shevtsova says, “will be bad. If we try
to make friends with America, the Americans will suspect us of evil intentions,”
especially given that “Russia will not say ‘mea culpa’” for any of the crimes
it has committed.
At same time, “if we try to respond
to America – and one must ask whether we can – the situation will become still
worse because Russia cannot oppose the most developed and wealthiest situation.”
All that should have been obvious to the Kremlin and led it to adopt different
policies; but it wasn’t and what Russia must now lie in the bed it has made for
itself.
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