Moscow Must Plug Three ‘Holes’ in Russia’s Leaky Demographic ‘Ship, Economist Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, January 4 – The birthrate is currently above replacement levels in only three Muslim republics – Ingushetia, Chechnya and Daghestan – and the country’s population will continue to decline unless it moves to plug three “holes” in the country’s demographic “ship” to boost births and reduce premature deaths, Aleksey Ulyanov says.

             The economist, who serves as an advisor to the Russian government, argues that “in our demographic ship, there are three enormous holes: abortion, alcohol and tobacco. Closing these holes is a question only of political will,” and if Moscow shows it, the current demographic trends can be radically modified to the better (svoboda.org/a/30328634.html).

            The situation with regard to abortions is especially acute, Ulyanov argues.  The government isn’t spending money on doctors and clinics but there still is money in the budget for abortions.  What that means is that on the one hand ever fewer Russians are getting the health care they need but on the other potential mothers can still get government-funded abortions.

            Regarding alcohol, the government has a better record. Since 2002, it has been taking steps to reduce the accessibility of alcohol. But according to the WHO, Russia is still suffering the loss of 400,000 people a year from alcohol alone. And according to the economist, the alcohol lobby recently has prompted the government to reduce its restrictions on sales.

            Alcohol hits men harder than women, and that is why on average Russian men live ten years less than women do. But that figure conceals something many don’t talk about: male deaths begin to occur when men reach their 40s – and that pushes down the birthrate as well, meaning that alcohol has a double whammy on Russian demography.

            And as far as tobacco is concerned, existing laws are not bad, but “nonetheless, annually up to now we are losing 200,000 to 300,000 people from premature deaths from the misuse of tobacco.” Forty-five percent of Russian men are still smokers, and they must be discouraged from smoking by raising prices.

            Ulyanov clearly believes that ending government financing of abortions and tightly restricting or even banning the sale of alcohol and tobacco will solve the problem. But Alla Ivanova, a demographer at the Russian Academy of Sciences, argues that his position doesn’t hold water.

             “There are no major wands which at one fell swoop can change the situation with regard to the decline in population,” she says. What works elsewhere won’t necessarily work in Russia, and rushing in with bans or prohibitions of other kinds can have counter-productive results.

            If government funding of abortions is ended, women will turn to illegal abortions and many will become infertile as a result, thus undercutting the government’s plans. If alcohol or tobacco is banned, Russians will turn to surrogates which may be even more dangerous to public health.  Consequently, problems need to be addressed carefully and slowly.