Censuses Usually Correct Data from Other Sources, but 2021 Russian Census was So Poorly Conducted Reverse is True, Krupnov Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Feb. 1 – Censuses around the world, including in Russia in the past, are typically the gold standard of government information about the population, and are used by the authorities to correct the data collected by other agencies or the estimates governments make between one census and the next, Moscow demographer Yury Krupnov says.

            But the 2021 census was so poorly conducted and its results thus so unreliable, he says, that Russia today must now use other statistical sources to correct the census rather than the other way around, a situation with potentially disastrous consequences for Russia as well as for those who seek to understand its demography (business-gazeta.ru/article/581878).

            For the Russian Federation, this reversal of fortune means that errors which exist in other sources will continue to inform policy rather than be corrected by the census as was typical in the past and that confidence in the population and among officials about all statistics will decline with each use of statistical information likely to spark controversy.

            And for those who attempt to understand the demographic development of that country, the failure of the 2021 census will mean that it can’t be used as earlier censuses were and can’t be compared with them, thus eliminating one of most important sources for tracking the longer- term development of the population there.

            Instead, scholars and analysts both Russian and non-Russian alike will have to try to come up with the most accurate figures they can by comparing census data and data from other sources, something no one will be entirely happy with and that will often create controversies and dissent.