Paul Goble
Staunton, Feb. 1 – Ethnic Kazakhs in the Russian Federation declined from 648,000 in 2010 to 592,000 in 2021, thus falling from 4.53 percent to 4.02 percent of the population but retaining their position as the tenth most numerous nationality there and much larger shares in Russian regions along the Kazakhstan border.
In reporting these figures, Kazakh journalist Bayan Akhmet notes that they reverse earlier trends and show that “the big northern neighbor is ceasing to be attractive for potential migrants and even those who have lived in Rsusia for a long time are beginning to think about returning to the country which is their historical motherland” (qmonitor.kz/society/4708).
The increase in the number of ethnic Kazakhs in the Russian Federation before 2000 and the declines since then reflect both migration patterns and birthrates. Between 2000 and 2009, the number of Kazakhs in the Russian Federation fell by only 6,000, despite the fact that 168,700 left Russia for Kazakhstan. The difference reflected higher birthrates.
“In the course of the next decade (2010-2020),” the number of Kazakhs leaving Russia for Kazakhstan fell to 50,600. “That means that the number of Kazakhs in the neighboring country should have increased at least a little. But it contacted by more than 55,000.” It isn’t clear whether this is the product of demographic change or bad Russian statistics.
However that may be, Akhmet says, the Kazakhs are “concentrated primarily in the regions near the borders with our republic,” a reflection of historical patterns of settlement. There are few elsewhere, including in the capitals, where there are fewer than 10,000 in Moscow and only 3400 in St. Petersburg.
One conclusion is inescapable, he concludes. While the number of Kyrgyz, Tajiks, Uzbeks, and even Turkmens in Russia is increasing, the number of Kazakhs not only has fallen but barring some unexpected tectonic shift is likely to continue to do so.
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