Moscow Losing Its Predominant Role in Negotiations on Karabakh Issue, Markedonov Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, July 14 – Given the increasing activity of the US and the EU in the Caucasus, “Russia is losing the exclusivity it used to have in talks about a possible Armenian-Azerbaijani settlement,” according to Sergey Markedonov, one of Moscow’s leading specialists on the Caucasus.

            The director of the ethnic relations department at Moscow’s Institute for Political and Military Analysis says that most people have been so focused on the NATO summit in Vilnius that they have failed to pay attention to other events that should be attended to. Among those is what is happening in the South Caucasus about Karabakh (iarex.ru/news/103200.html).

            One reason many have ignored this issue recently is that for a long time, they have viewed the resolution of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict as “hopeless” and thus think that Moscow need not do anything to maintain the status quo which for decades has worked to its advantage.

            But a lengthy interview by Armen Grigoryan, the secretary of the Armenian Security Council, to the Voice of America on July 11 suggests that such confidence may be misplaced, that the situation around Karabakh is in motion, and Russia is being increasingly left behind and thus losing its influence.

            The Grigoryan interview is in Armenian at amerikayidzayn.com/a/7176553.html and in English at jam-news.net/armen-grigoryans-interview-with-voice-of-america/. Because Grigoryan is a senior policy maker and often articulates new directions in Yerevan’s policies, it should be attracting more attention than it has so far, Markedonov says.

            In his interview, Grigoryan makes four key points: first, talks between Aliyev and Pashinyan could take place far earlier than anyone thinks, second, the Russian peacekeeping contingent in Karabakh hasn’t lived up to expectations; third, “the problem of Karabakh Armenians is not about territory but about civil rights” within Azerbaijan; and fourth, Armenia’s relations with the US are especially important and must be strengthened in every possible way.

            All this suggests that “a framework agreement mediated by the West is closer than ever before” and that it will be something that both Yerevan and Baku will be in a position to “sell” domestically. According to Markedonov, “for Russia this is not very good news.” Moscow can blame the Armenians but of late Russia has not devoted the attention to this issue it should.

            Russians need to realize that Moscow “is losing its political exclusivity on an Armenian-Azerbaijani settlement every day and more and more. A framework agreement orchestrated by the US and the EU will alas intensify this trend.” Moscow must recognize that it has competitors and not assume that it can ignore them and what they are doing, Markedonov concludes.