Paul
Goble
Staunton, February 19 – By pulling
Ukrainian troops out of Debaltsevo, thus preserving them to fight another day
and straightening the ceasefire line, and by calling for UN or EU peacekeepers
to monitor it, Petro Poroshenko has put Vladimir Putin in a difficult position
because if he rejects that idea, he will show himself “ready for a major war in
Europe.”
Those are the most important
consequences of the events of the last 48 hours, Kyiv commentator Vitaly
Portnikov argues, even though “at first glance,” that may not appear to be the
case after Ukraine’s loss of Debaltsevo (liga.net/opinion/223497_proverka-mirotvortsami-zakhochet-li-putin-vyyti-iz-igry.htm).
Ukraine was not in a position to
hold the salient, Portnikov says, but Putin’s plan was “not so much about the
seizure of Debaltsevo as in creating a cauldron in which there would be
thousands of Ukrainian soldiers” whose capture would discredit Ukraine and thus
open the way for the collapse of the government in Kyiv.
By pulling the Ukrainian forces out
of the salient, Poroshenko blocked the realization of Putin’s plans. But he did
more than that: he stabilized the situation along the ceasefire line and made
it easier for Ukraine forces to oppose Russian ones without the risks of the kind
of losses that the salient might have entailed.
“Can Putin attack further?” Portnikov
asks rhetorically. “Of course, he can,” but any new attack will undermine “the
rickety balance in relations with the West which was achieved as a result of
the Minsk agreements. If Putin does go further, then the path to new sanctions
and to the arming of Ukraine will be open. And in the Kremlin, they know that
very well.”
This is a question of
tactics, the Kyiv commentator says, and what is necessary is to think about
Putin’s strategy. “What does Putin want today: to continue the war or to get out
of the Donetsk battles with the least damage to his image?” The answer to that
will not be long in coming thanks to Poroshenko’s proposal of international
peacekeepers.
The Ukrainian
president’s proposal is “completely logical” given that Russia isn’t obeying
the ceasefire even as it lies about its support of the Minsk agreements. The only way to change the situation now is
to introduce peacekeepers who can act as a buffer between Russian and Ukrainian
forces.
If they were to
be in place, Portnikov says, that would put an end to talk about “’the
restoration of the territorial integrity of the DNR’” because the pro-Moscow
militants would have to “shoot at German or French troops” rather than
Ukrainian ones. Any militant attacks on
the former would have a much more immediate impact on the international
situation.
That is because “the sanctions that would come
would not be for Ukraine but for France or Germany. And these would be quite
different sanctions” than those seen so far, Portnikov argues. As a result,
Putin would have to impose far greater control on the militants and likely
eliminating one way or another many of their current leaders.
But all of that
can only occur if the West and Russia agree to Poroshenko’s call for
peacekeeprs. “For the West, the dispatch of such a contingent is simpler than
giving Ukraine arms and also more risky because the price of the life of each
soldier in the West is much higher than is the case on the post-Soviet space.”
Moreover, if a EU
police mission really did come to Ukraine and any of its personnel died, “the
Europeans would seriously ask their governments why they had sent boys into
such an unstable region. Therefore, the EU will need to get the agreement of
Russia.” But that is possible only “if Putin really wants to stop the war.”
That could work
to his advantage, but “if he refuses, then it will be completely unimportant
which city he has already seized and which one he intends to seize tomorrow. It
will be finally understood that Putin is preparing for a major war” and not one
just with Ukraine. That will force the
West to take far more intensive steps to prevent that from happening.
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