Paul
Goble
Staunton, July 10 – Because the
Western powers have made it clear that they will react harshly to any further
Russian advance into Ukraine, Vladimir Putin has shifted his focus away from
that at least for the time being and is concentrating on the de facto
annexation of the occupied territories, according to Andrey Piontkovsky.
According to the Russian analyst,
Putin’s attempt to use nuclear blackmail against the West backfired. He assumed
the West would back down, “but this didn’t happen: the West responded with a
display of its military might” in the Baltic countries which are members of
NATO and made clear that no further aggression in Ukraine would be tolerated.
The West has given Putin to
understand that “any military escalation such as a move toward Mariupol or even
more an attempt to create a corridor to the straits will be met with intensified economic sanctions and the sale to
Ukraine of lethal weaponry, including anti-tank rockers” (nv.ua/opinion/piontkovskiy/ot-planov-putina-ostalsya-ogryzok-donbassa-58458.html).
The Kremlin, Piontkovsky suggests, “has understood this
and thus not taken a decision for military escalation.” Of course, there will
be clashes along the border for a certain time, “but there will be ever less
sense in them because Moscow is not prepared for an escalation” and Ukraine “is
not planning” to recover the occupied lands “by force” lest it provoke Putin
into sending in more regular army units and gaining a decisive advantage.
Moscow’s
strategy in this situation, the Russian commentator says, “is to deceive the
Ukrainians with the illusion of territorial integrity” and try to force Kyiv to
take responsibility for the DNR and LNR in order to “disorder Ukraine from the inside.” But Kyiv has made clear that it will not “support
these bandit republics and permit them to define its political future.”
That
in turn means, he says, that “Putin is gradually moving toward the actual
annexation of the occupied territories,” assuming “responsibility for the economy
and social sphere of ‘the republics” and not seriously expecting that their
demands for Ukrainian support will be successful in Kyiv.
“In
the short term,” Piontkovsky argues, “such a scenario” will satisfy Ukraine: “Moscow
will take on itself the support of the separatist republics and not engage in
further demands.” But only in the short term. “Moscow is not capable of
supporting this region even in the middle term,” but Putin will try because
this is the only way he can save face in retreat.
Initially,
as the Russian commentator says, Putin “spoke about the Russian world which
would extend to Estonia, Latvia, and Kazakhstan. Then when it became clear that
the Russian world was not going to happen, he began to talk about Novorossiya.”
But “the Russian language community of Ukraine did not support this insane
idea.”
As
a result, Putin has had to satisfy himself with a piece of the Donbas.”
And although Piontkovsky does not address this
possibility, the de facto annexation of the Donbas could very well mean that
that region will destabilize Russia just as Putin once hoped to have it
destabilize Ukraine, yet another example of his counterproductive policies and
unintended consequences.
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