Paul
Goble
Staunton, December 8 – At the end of
November, an article by Andrey Vadzhra for the influential Russian Institute
for Strategic Investigations (RISI) repeated many of the themes that have
become commonplace in Russian commentaries about Ukraine, but it also contained
a serious warning: “a new phase of war” is now “inevitable.
Vadzhra’s article (riss.ru/analitycs/23307/), Kseniya
Kirillova argues, confirms the views of Ukrainian security analyst Valentin
Badrak; but because of its source – RISI was a major lobbyist for Russia’s
invasion of Ukraine -- the new Russian article gives them new weight (nr2.com.ua/blogs/Ksenija_Kirillova/Kremlevskie-analitiki-ugrozhayut-Ukraine-voynoy-i-teraktami-112998.html).
As has become characteristic of
Russian commentaries and propaganda, Kirillova says, Vadzhra accuses Ukraine of
planning to do what in fact Russia has done or will do itself. And thus, his argument that Kyiv has no way
out by to “begin a new stage of the war” possibly by staging a provocation
suggests that that is exactly what Moscow will be doing.
Further, Vadzhra writes that “it is
not excluded that in the near term on the territory of Ukraine will be carried
out some kind of large-scale provocation to give the Ukrainian leadership the
occasion to begin a major military attack on the Donbas.” In “the mirror image” of Russian propaganda,
that suggests Moscow, not Kyiv, is likely planning to do exactly that.
Given that large numbers of people
in Ukraine, Russia and the West are assuming that Moscow will not attack in
Ukraine either because of Russia’s domestic difficulties or because of Vladimir
Putin’s involvement in Syria, Kirillova suggests, one cannot afford to ignore
warnings like this one that at least some in the Russian capital are planning
to do precisely that.
No comments:
Post a Comment