Paul
Goble
Staunton, April 9 – While the number
of Central Asian gastarbeiters in Russia has fallen, their ranks in Kazakhstan
have dramatically swollen from 509,000 in 2011 to 945,000 now, an increase with
serious consequences for the domestic situation in Kazakhstan and for Astana’s
relations with the three donor countries, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and
Uzbekistan.
Almost all of the increase in the
number of Central Asian gastarbeiters in Kazakhstan has been the product of declines
in their numbers in the Russian Federation, according to a study by the
International Migration Organization summarized by Kazakh journalist Botagoz
Seydakhmetova (exclusive.kz/trudovaya_migraciya_menyaet_vektor).
The IMO predicts
this trend will continue for at least a decade and that Central Asians who can
no longer find work in Russia will choose to go to Turkey if that is possible
but more likely to Kazakhstan where they already form large communities. Most of those in Kazakhstan are Uzbeks, and
that pattern too, the IMO suggests, will continue as well.
Uzbek, Tajik and Kyrgyz
gastarbeiters in Kazakhstan have taken over distinct niches in the Kazakhstan
economy. The Uzbeks control much of the restaurant business in Almaty and
Astana; the Tajiks sell fruits and vegetables; and the Kyrgyz are involved in
both food supplies and restaurant work.
But there are three things they have
in common: all find it more difficult to send money home from Kazakhstan than
from Russia, a large share of them are in the country illegally with all the
negative consequences that entails, and most are afraid to turn to the authorities
because they don’t trust the regime.
As a result, they represent
potentially fertile ground for the flourishing of Islamist ideas and thus
create a security problem inside Kazakhstan and a source of tensions in its
relations with the three countries, especially Uzbekistan, that are the
homelands of this group of gastarbeiters which has received less international
attention than it deserves.
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