Paul
Goble
Staunton, November 27 – Recent days
have featured a drumbeat of developments suggesting Russia is preparing for
war: Moscow has boosted its military spending, Vladimir Putin has told businesses
to go on a military footing, Patriarch Kirill has spoken about a looming
apocalypse, and school children are being instructed on how to cope with a
military conflict.
The big question is “why?” As Moscow
blogger Aleksandr Melnikov points out, “there are no military threats to
Russia, no country has territorial claims against our country, and no one is preparing
to attack it.” Instead, he suggests, the reason for Putin’s war talk lies
within his elite and his inability to offer Russia anything else (aleks-melnikov.livejournal.com/483880.html).
“The final goal of the system which
is failing in Russia, the logical conclusion of all its shameful existence can
be only a war with the contemporary world,” he continues. “The first steps have
already been made – Ukraine, conflict with Western countries, aggressive
interference in their internal affairs, and the militarization of all social
life of the country.”
Under Putin, “the rotting Russian
system has no other sense.” And it is happening, Melnikov says, because that
system has “nothing to offer its citizens, and nothing to offer to the world.” It has led itself into a dead end and views
talk of war as the only way to keep its rulers in positions of whatever happens
to anyone else.
“The results are well-known,” the
blogger continues. “Sanctions, a lack of capital, the rotting away of ‘state
companies,’ enormous social differentiation, the robbing of the regions, privileges
for the ruling bosses, the lack of prospects for the young, a brain drain,
pensions at the poverty level, open deceiving of pensioners, the insanity of
the ruling hierarchs. A completely and absolutely poor country.”
“Ahead there is no dawn: things will
only get worse in every sense. This is completely obvious,” Melnikov argues.
Consequently, “the last exit for the ruling bosses is to drive their passive
people into the box of preparation for war. They are doing this step by step,
gradually moving forward to their goal.”
Whether
there will be a war or not is still unknown. “But to live this war, to make the
life of people a preparation for war, having based it on hatred and using it to
hide all the failures of the Russian bosses and all Russian society, that will
happen,” for the same reasons and with the same short-term effect as the
Anschluss of Crimea.
“If a war with the
Western world happens, this will be the last Russian war: the country will lose
it, with enormous victims and destruction.” But in some respects, the Russian
people have already lost because they have shown themselves willing to be
driven about in any direction that Putin and his bosses want. “They will agree
to anything.”
“What will be ‘the trigger’ of such
a war?” That is clear, Melnikov says. “If the Western governments freeze the
money and property of the upper Russian rulers and their friends held in the
West, then the last thread and the last meaning of existence together with the
West will be lost for the Russian elite.”
And then, Melnikov concludes, “the
country will still more rapidly head toward the abyss of history,” all to save
rulers that have done nothing to save the Russian people.
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