People Around Putin Want Change But as in 1985 Won’t Say So While He is in Power, Travin Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, January 5 – The Putin regime is stable but just as in 1985, there are many people in the Kremlin who want real change, but they will not say so as long as the current ruler is in office, Dmitry Travin says. Once he passes from the scene, however, they will emerge and seek to change Russia in fundamental ways.

            “If we look at what the Putin entourage says publicly, then is will of course seem that no changes can take place,” the economist says; But if we look at what Gorbachev’s entourage said in 1984, then we would have been inclined to say that nothing in the USSR was going to change” (mnews.world/ru/v-okruzhenii-putina-vse-govoryat-odni-i-te-zhe-glupye-slova-a-dumayut-to-drugoe/).

            “I have no the slightest doubt that in Putin’s entourage, there are a large number of people who are dissatisfied with what is taking place” in much the same way that was true of Gorbachev’s. And at the same time, Travin says that he does not think there are many who want to preserve the regime exactly as it is at present.

            Exactly how they will want things to change and what steps they will take, however, are uncertain; and no one will be able to express more than a theoretical view until after Putin passes from the scene. “Putin isn’t going anywhere.”  At the same time, he may himself become different after 2024.

            Russians, including many near the throne, “want paternalism” and that leads them to say positive things about the USSR. But that doesn’t mean that they want “a real Soviet Union.” They just want a regime that does a better job of taking care of them than the Putin regime has over the last decade.

            When Putin does leave the scene, various groups will emerge; and there will be an intense struggle over the direction the country should take. It isn’t true that most want “democracy but not autocracy: They want something else: if you, guys, want to rule in an autocratic manner, then don’t lead the country to a situation when after you there’ll be chaos.”

            Thus, a new authoritarian ruler could emerge and attract support much as has happened in Hungary, but that is perhaps less likely than that Russia will move toward liberalization and a new opening to the West. Even the siloviki are likely to be divided on that point, depending on which course they see benefiting themselves the most.

            Again, Travin says, the divisions in the siloviki are not much in evidence because divisions in the top elites have not emerged. Consequently, the Russian Guard and the police still obey orders and do so quite effectively.  When the elite is divided over how to use them, then there will be divisions among them and a decay in command and control.

            “When there is no Putin” to stop such discussions and give orders to use force, “then chaos will begin.”  How society and elites will respond remains to be seen. Russia could move toward a democratic state like the Czech or the Estonian. “Or everything could go according to a Ukrainian scenario, also democracy but not working effectively.”

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