Protests Likely to Become Routine Background Noise for Russians and Regime in 2020, Gudkov Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, January 8 – Lev Gudkov says that he expects Russian attitudes to remain about where they are now in 2020 but he suggests that “protests will be routinized.” That is, they will lose “their sensational character and extraordinary nature” and become part of the ordinary pattern of life for both the people and the regime.

            The Levada Center director says that in his view, this, more than any growing dissatisfaction among the population with the regime or any increasingly harsh and repression actions by the powers that be will be the dominant element in Russian life over the next 12 months (fontanka.ru/2020/01/08/020/).

            If the sociologist is correct, this will move the Putin government in the direction of “repressive tolerance” in which it will allow protests in order to make them something ordinary rather than anything special and thereby avoid having them attract the kind of attention that could lead them to grow and challenge the Kremlin’s authority.

            In the course of an extensive interview with Nikolay Nelyubin of the Fontanka news agency, Gudkov made a number of additional points; but perhaps the most interesting were his comments about Russian attitudes toward Stalin and those toward Putin. Both sets, he suggested, are more complicated than many imagine.

            Gudkov says that he does not see “any campaign” by the powers that be to boost Stalin in the eyes of Russians. “But there is a mass demand for such a figure, for the myth about Stalin, and for the idealization of the Soviet past” in part because of the traumas of the collapse of the USSR and the difficulties of the transition.

            “In general,” the pollster continues, “the peak of Stalin’s popularity (it was in 2012) has now been reduced. This is a stable trend. And it is especially significant for young people. It isn’t about love for him or a growth in the number of Stalinists.” Rather it reflects a poor understanding of the Russian past and “the moral stupidity of Russian society.”

            With regard to Putin, Gudkov says, one must distinguish between support for “the symbolic status of the chief of state,” on the one hand, and attitudes toward Putin himself, on the other.  These are different things, and Russians “make this distinction.” As a result, they give high ratings to the president but when asked about Putin personally, they give much lower ones.

            “Only somewhere about a third of Russians have a positive attitude toward Putin,” Gudkov says, and about 10 to 12 percent have a negative one.  The rest are “indifferent,” but the size of that group is “extraordinarily important.” Indifference is deadly to an authoritarian regime like his.