Paul
Goble
Staunton, October 30 – Because the
future of Crimea does not depend on the residents of Crimea alone, Mustafa
Cemilev says, the Crimean Tatars will take “their struggle for their rights
onto the territory of Russia,” seeking allies among the Turkic republics there
and among other Russians who will eventually come to their senses after the Anschluss.
In an interview published by
Profile.ru yesterday, the Crimean Tatar leader told that portal’s Ivan Sukhov
that the status of Crimea “can be changed if a miracle occurs and the
leadership [in Moscow] begins to be guided by the interests of Russia and not
by chauvinist ambitions” (profile.ru/eks-sssr/item/88120-mustafa-dzhemilev-my-mozhem-perenesti-i-na-territoriyu-rossii-svoyu-borbu-za-svoi-prava).
Such a rejection of “the principle
of international banditism and the seizure of foreign territories” is unlikely
to happen anytime soon, Cemilev continued, given that polls show that many in Russia
are delighted with what Vladimir Putin has done. It will thus require “a
significant time for the population of Russia to sober up” under the impact of
sanctions.
But in the meantime, he said, everyone
must recognize that “the future of Crimea and its status now depends not on the
attitudes of the residents of Crimea. Even if 100 percent of them were for the
return of the peninsula to Ukraine, Russian legislation does not make any
provision for local referenda to define the status of a territory.”
Instead, calls for a return to the
status quo ante “will be considered as calls for separatism,” actions that are
punishable by up to five years imprisonment under Russian law. Consequently, Cemilev argued, “other factors
are needed,” including those that will raise the price on aggression and
prevent it from happening.
Whatever people in Moscow think,
Russia is not going to be able to recruit Crimean Tatar leaders to perform as
servants of the Russian state. Of the 33 members of the Mejlis, only three are
willing to cooperate with the occupation authorities; and they are doing so
only because they think that the Russian occupation is likely to last a long
time.
But Cemilev said that “the
overwhelming majority of members of the Mejlis just like the majority of the
Crimean Tatar popular considers that there is nothing for them to talk about
with the occupiers” except about the end of the occupation.
Moscow earlier tried to use the
leaders of two of its Turkic republics, Tatarstan and Bashkortostan, to attract
the Crimean Tatars to its side. But that didn’t work because when those leaders
came to Crimea and saw what is happening, they were not able to do what Moscow
wanted and were in fact affected by it in ways Moscow did not like.
According to Cemilev, there
initially were two trends within the Russian political establishment concerning
how to deal with the Crimean Tatars. The first believed it was necessary to
find an agreement with the Mejlis. That led to the invitation to Cemilev
himself to speak with Putin.
The second “started from the proposition
that it is impossible to reach agreement with the Crimean Tatars and therefore
[Moscow] must use its traditional tactics: divide, intimidate, and put pressure”
on them. “The experience of contacts with Tatarstan did not have any positive
results” from the Kremlin’s point of view.
As a result, Cemilev said, “the
Russian leadership has come to the conclusion that the Crimean Tatars have had
a bad influence on the Kazan Tatars” with the latter interacting with the
Crimean Tatars not as Russians but as Tatars -- even though the Kazan Tatars
did say “formally” that the Crimean Tatars must learn to act within Russia
because they won’t find it easy to escape.
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