Paul
Goble
Staunton, October 28 – Having failed
to disrupt the Ukrainian elections, to gain support for pro-Russian candidates,
or to provoke Ukrainians into voting for national extremists that Moscow could
use to discredit Ukraine in the West, Vladimir Putin will be tempted to stir up
more violence in Ukraine to keep that country from pursuing its European
course.
In many respects, Putin has only
himself to blame for the Ukraine vote: his Anschluss of Crimea and aggression
in the southeast helped unite Ukrainians as never before. Indeed, one could
almost say that just as Stalin was the greatest state builder in Ukrainian
history because he added so much territory to Ukraine, the current Kremlin
leader is its greatest nation builder.
Vitaly Portnikov offers that
argument on Profile.ru in an article entitled “Thanks to Putin for the Rada” (profile.ru/eks-sssr/item/87912-parlament-ot-putina). But Putin’s unintended success as a
Ukrainian nation builder is not the end of the story because Putin still has
cards to play both inside the new Verkhovna Rada and in the streets of
Ukrainian cities.
And
it is very likely that Putin, who can’t be pleased with the way in which
Ukrainians voted, is already making plans to use them. In a commentary today on Grani.ru, Boris
Sokolov outlines what Putin is likely to do next both within the Ukrainian
political system and, more importantly, against it (grani.ru/opinion/sokolov/m.234444.html).
The
new Verkhovna Rada, Sokolov points out, will have very few pro-Russian
deputies, and those will “not be able to have any serious influence on the
activity” of the Ukrainian government. But Moscow almost certainly will attempt
to play up personal conflicts as it did earlier between Yushchenko and
Timoshenko that allow Yanukovich to come to power.
According
to Sokolov, Moscow will now “do everything to create and deepen a split between
Poroshenko and Yatsenyuk,” a split that would allow it “to paralyze the
activity of the [Ukrainian] parliament
and government and drive Ukraine into chaos.”
And there is no reason to think Putin would “stop before military
intervention” if that is required.
But
Moscow may be restrained at least for a time because the current Ukrainian
president unlike the current Ukrainian prime minister still has some hopes for “some
kind of compromise with Russia.” There is no basis for such hopes given that
Putin has no intention of backing away from his plans to prevent Ukraine and
Ukrainians from freely choosing their future with Europe.
Yatseniuk “recognizes that there is no
compromise possible in the foreseeable future which would be acceptable for
both sides and therefore is prepared for a tougher stand against Moscow.” Obviously, the Russians will try to weaken
him and thus the supporters of this position by making some superficial
concessions to Poroshenko.
Fortunately,
Sokolov says, “approximately half of the deputies” in the new Rada “are now
people, the majority of whom are connected with the EuroMaidan.” Consequently, there is the hope that they
will not allow” Putin to divide their ranks and play them against one another.
Only by standing together can they ensure the kind of reforms Ukraine needs and
the territorial integrity it must maintain.
But unfortunately, although Sokolov
does not say so, there are so many forces in the West who would like to see a
compromise between Kyiv and Moscow that there is a danger they will insist on the
kind of concessions from Ukraine that would push that country into chaos, precisely
the goal Putin is hoping for.
Only a united front of democrats in
Ukraine and of democracies in the West can prevent him from achieving his ends,
but creating and maintaining such a front will not be easy given that Putin has
shown he is prepared to use power of all kinds, including naked military
aggression, to get his way.
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