Paul
Goble
Staunton, January 8 – The situation
in the North Caucasus which had stabilized in recent months is again on the
brink of an explosion as a result of the return of militants from Syria who are
now loyal to ISIL, massive human rights violations by the authorities, and
widely-criticized court decisions, according to five regional specialists
surveyed by Kavkaz Uzel.
During the first 11 months of 2014,
the last period for which data are available, there were no fewer than 26
terrorist actions and no fewer than 137 clashes between the authorities and the
armed underground. These actions claimed 290 dead and 140 wounded, according to
the news service (ingushetia.kavkaz-uzel.ru/articles/255197/).
These figures, however horrific they
may appear, represent a significant decline in the intensity of conflict there,
according to Aleksandr Cherkasov of the Memorial Human Rights Center. “The
activity of the underground in the region is falling. In 2013, it was lower
than in 2012, and in 2014, it was lower than in 2013.”
At least in part, he continued, this
was connected with the harsh measures the authorities in Daghestan and Chechnya
adopted and with the use of soft force in Ingushetia, which by the way,
Cherkasov indicated, “has become the most peaceful region in the North
Caucasus.” The question is whether this trend can last.
In recent months, he said, “hundreds
of militants” left the North Caucasus to fight in Syria,” partially because “it
was more peaceful for them” in that Middle Eastern country than in their
homelands. But “this means that the improvement of the situation [in the North
Caucasus] is only temporary,” especially as those returning have more military
experience and are committed to the Islamic State.
This shift in loyalty, he continued,
has potentially serious consequences because it is likely to mean that
militants in the North Caucasus will now operate beyond the borders of their
own republics, be more willing to kill civilians, and become ever less willing
to negotiate directly or indirectly with the authorities.
Varvara Pakhomenko of the International
Crisis Group said that the decline in militant activity in 2014 was the result
of “the active work of the [Russian] force structures on the eve of the
Olympiad in Sochi and after it,” operations which involved extremely “harsh
measures” leading to the deaths, arrests, or departure from the area of many
militants.
The success this campaign had, she said,
made the use of force look “effective.” But it is “not capable of bringing a
long-lasting peace since it leads to the antagonism of the population and the
powers and to the growth of radicalism.” Militants who went to Syria and have
now returned as ISIL loyalists are an increasing threat.
“If
even a few percent of those who have fought there enter the North Caucasian
underground, this could have a significant effect,” especially since “now the
leaders of militant groups are beginning to take an oath of allegiance to the ‘Islamic
State’” and thus showing their willingness to engage in ever more radical
actions.
Denis Sokolov of the Russian Academy of
Economics and State Service agrees. The departure of “several thousand” North
Caucasian militants to Syria led to the decline in violence; their return is
likely to trigger more of it. And it is not clear whether pro-Moscow regimes in
the region currently have the capacity to counter that.
In addition, he said, 2015 is likely to see a wave
of protests in Russia as a whole, and at least some in the North Caucasus will
take courage from that, especially if increasing budgetary stringencies lead
Moscow to cut funding to the region. In that event, one could say, he suggests,
that “the old institutional system has been destroyed, but a new one has not
been created.”
Tatyana Lokshina of Human Rights Watch added that
she views the attacks on Chechen institutions in early December and Ramzan
Kadyrov’s harsh response, including his very public declarations about the
destruction of the homes of relatives of militants, as pointing to a new and
more dangerous future.
And she said her fears were reinforced by the
recently concluded anti-terror operation in the Daghestan village of Vremenny.
It lasted more than three months and was “unprecedented” in its cruelty,
suggesting that the powers that be are ever less willing to use any but hard
power resources to control the situation.
Finally, Sergey Nikitin of Amnesty International
said that a series of recent court decisions, all of which went against North
Caucasians and which are viewed by many as unjust, has broadened the circle of
those who view the existing political system as wrong and may be more prepared
to listen to those using violence to change it.
No comments:
Post a Comment