Window on Eurasia: Putin Seeks to Eliminate a United Ukraine to Which He Might Have to Return Anything, Stepanov Says

Paul Goble

 

            Staunton, January 3 – Vladimir Putin’s invasion and occupation of Ukrainian territory continue to attract the most attention, but his strategy also has another prong: so weakening Kyiv that there won’t be a unified Ukraine to which he might ultimately be compelled to return all or part of what he has seized so far.

 

            And that aspect of his strategy may become increasingly important not only because of Ukrainian military successes in the field but also because of the interest in some Western governments of reaching an agreement in which Moscow would retain Crimea at least for a time if it withdrew from the Donbas.

 

            If Putin can so weaken the rest of Ukraine either by sponsoring additional secessionist movements or subverting Ukrainian politics in Kyiv and elsewhere, the Kremlin leader could win support for his clear objective of not returning anything to Ukraine by suggesting that there is no effective central Ukrainian government to return anything to.

 

            Those reflections, prompted by a commentary offered yesterday by Igor Stepanov, highlight the importance of Kyiv recognizing the comprehensive nature of the threat it faces and getting its house in order economically and politically and suggest that at least some of the media attacks on Kyiv are intentionally or not playing into Putin’s hand.

 

            Writing on Obozrevatel.com, Stepanov says that “Putin has decided what to do with Ukraine” and to that end has come up with a new strategy, one that is less about control of this or that piece of land than about weakening Ukraine and Kyiv’s ability to control its territory and stand up to Moscow (obozrevatel.com/blogs/80543-putin-reshil-chto-delat-s-ukrainoj.htm).

 

            According to Stepanov, what Putin now wants to focus on is “creating a situation in which there will be no one to return all that he has seized,” both by “organizing a parade of sovereignties” which will undermine Kyiv’s control of the country and by intensifying “diversionary war” to show that the Ukrainian government is not in control of the situation.

 

            In short, Putin wants the Ukrainian population to become increasingly hostile to Kyiv with “the goal of depriving Ukraine of the status of a subject by the hands of its very own citizens.” Such a goal is completely consistent with Putin’s oft-stated claim that Ukraine isn’t a real country but rather a failed state, something some east and west have been echoing.