Paul
Goble
Staunton, February 1 – Many Russians
have long been accustomed to thinking of immigrant workers as undesirable
alines, but the departure of so many of them as a result of the economic crisis
and new government restrictions on immigration is beginning to affect Russians
where they live – and some of them may soon be changing their tune.
On the one hand, the outflow of
immigrant workers is pushing the price of housing and services up as employers
are forced to pay higher wages to get work done. And on the other, when
employers cannot find anyone to do the work that the gastarbeiters had been
doing, that work, including sweeping the streets of snow, simply isn’t getting
done at all.
That has led Igor Albin, the vice
governor of St. Petersburg, to suggest that residents of his city should stop
complaining about snow removal, pick up shovels, and get to work, a proposal
that recalls Marie Antoinette’s advice almost as much as the suggestion by
another Russian official that Russians should respond to rising food prices by
eating less.
As Mariya Portnyagina points out in
the current issue of “Ogonyok,” Russian officials have tried to downplay the
size of the outflow of migrants, suggesting alternatively that it is seasonal
or that the gastabeiters who have left Russia now will return when they find
that no other country is ready to take them in (kommersant.ru/doc/2643912).
But the size of the outflow is now
so large and its impact on particular sectors of the Russian economy so obvious
that officials and experts are now devoting more of their time to explaining
what the impact of immigrant workers on the Russian economy really is and why
Russia will have little choice but to work to attract them back.
Nikita Mkrtchyan, a sociologist at
Moscow’s Higher School of Economics, says that it is not the case that
gastarbeiters have been working for less income and thus depressing wages for
Russians. They simply work at
lower-paying jobs. But they often work longer hours and without taking sick
days than Russians do and thus cost employers less.
But the days when such people were arriving in virtually
unlimited numbers are over, and in fact at the present time, the gastarbeiters
who have been in Russia are going home and not coming back at least anytime
soon.
Uzbek,
Tajik and Kyrgyz diaspora leaders say that as a result of the declining
exchange rate for the ruble and new requirements for those working in Russia,
many of their co-nationals have concluded that working in Russia is not only
unprofitable but increasingly unpleasant and are looking elsewhere.
Trains
and planes are leaving Russia for Central Asia full and coming back half empty,
clear evidence that what these diaspora leaders are saying is true, Portnyagina
says.
According
to Sergey Abashin, a professor at St. Petersburg’s European University, the
impact of the declining value of the ruble is less significant in the decisions
of the gastarbeiters than are the new requirements the Russian government has
imposed concerning Russian language knowledge and the payment for patents to
work in Russia.
In any case, the gastarbeiters are
leaving, and Moscow does not know where to find more. Vyacheslav Postavnin, the head of the
Migration for the 21st Century Foundation, says that migrant workers
currently form 8 to 15 percent of the Russian workforce and are responsible for
six to 20 percent of its GDP.
“Demographic predictions,” he points
out, “show that dependence on gastarbeiters will only increase.” Postavnin says
that the best hope for Russia is that those who are leaving now will discover
that no other country wants to take them in and so will conclude that they have
no choice but to return to Russia, whatever the new official requirements are.
But it is far from clear, the “Ogonyok”
journalist suggests, whether ordinary Russians are going to be very happy with
the situation the departure of the migrants workers is already creating. They are already being missed in
construction, trade, and housing services, and officials and businesses are
finding it hard to fill the jobs they have left.
In Kazan, for example, some 15 to 20
percent of janitorial positions are now empty. In Sverdlovsk oblast, the
shortage of workers has become so severe that officials are deploying prisoners
from local camps to work in the cities.
And in Moscow, people are increasingly angry that the streets aren’t
being kept clean.
Some may take to heart the proposal
of the St. Petersburg vice governor that they should clean the streets
themselves. But others are likely to respond in other ways, increasingly
infuriated by what some of them are certain to view as the incompetence of officials
in dealing with migrants.
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