Paul
Goble
Staunton, August 25 – It is likely
to be difficult if not impossible to know whether calls by the Ingush opposition
to boycott the September 8 local elections will prove effective, Timur Akiyev
says, because participation in such voting there has always been extremely low.
If more voters say away, that in itself will be unlikely to have an impact on the
authorities.
But the boycott calls nonetheless
may matter in two important ways, increasing the significance of opposition
groups and the importance of local councils among the population. The latter
could prove especially important, the Ekho Kavkaza commentator says, because
that would challenge the powers that be (ekhokavkaza.com/a/30128075.html).
The republic government and behind
it Moscow have counted on local councils to rubber stamp anything the authorities
in either place want. But by suggesting that elections to these councils are
worth boycotting, the Ingush opposition has signaled that these bodies are
potentially more important and even independent-minded.
“The authorities,” he suggests, “are
afraid not of empty ballot boxes but of any experiments which they do not
direct and control. Therefore, they avoid
any competition with independent social structures even wen they have the
opportunity to win a victory in such competitions.”
But the boycott carries with it
risks for the opposition as well, Akiyev continues. It excludes the opportunity
of its leaders to call attention to falsification of the voting and thus be in
a position to challenge the legitimacy of the voting. Unless the percentage of
people turning out is extremely low, that will be harder to do.
Up to now, the commentator says, the
municipal authorities have ignored the boycott appeals. But for the opposition,
their views are far less important than a possible response by Makhmud-Ali
Kalimatov, the new head of the republic with whom the opposition very much
hopes to enter into a dialogue.
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