Paul
Goble
Staunton, August 17 – Russia cannot
become a democracy as long as it remains in its current borders, Petr Yeltsov
says; and consequently, because of the continuing desire of its peoples for
freedom, the country’s territorial integrity will continue to be threatened by
separatism with Russia likely to disintegrate over the course of the next
generation.
Yeltsov, a Russian-born historian
and anthropologist trained at Harvard and now teaching at Washington’s National
Defense University, laid out his ideas on this point in a recent Politico
article (politico.com/magazine/story/2019/08/03/russia-separatism-vladimir-putin-227498), ideas which he expanded in an interview with the Russian
Service of the Voice of America.
He tells VOA’s Valeria Jegisman that “Russia today is in
a weak position economically, ideologically and politically. I would even say,”
he continues, “that we are seeing a certain agony of the empire,” with the
Russian Federation unlikely to last even half as long as did the Soviet Union (golos-ameriki.ru/a/eltsov-russia/5045555.html).
That is because
“there is no single national identity in Russia. The country will be shaken
under pressure of separatism. Now, everything is being held together by
Putin.” Unlike in tsarist and Soviet
times, there are no institutions other than one man holding the country
together. When he leaves the scene and he will, things will fly apart.
“Many nationalities live in Russia,
and the government is trying to impose a single identity.” It has developed a
law on “a single Russian nation.” But most non-Russians will never accept that.
Moreover, Yeltsov says, “ethnic Russian separatism is very strong” with regions
like Siberia identifying not with Russia but with themselves.
“Not everyone knows about this,” the
historian says, “and only recently did many documents become accessible.”
If after Putin
leaves, Russia changes its government and has a democratic regime, the
disintegration of the country can be relatively peaceful. If he is succeeded by
another authoritarian, it may be preserved in its current borders for a time
but ultimately will fall apart in a less vegetarian way.
The biggest threats to Russia thus
come from within, he says. Western policy must be based no containment. Economic sanctions won’t work, and efforts to
impose democracy on Russia have already shown themselves to be failure.
Personal sanctions are more important and effective, Yeltsov argues.
The most effective means of putting
pressure on Russia, however, is to support the flourishing of the former Soviet
republics, such as Ukraine, Georgia and Kazakhstan. If they become successful, Russians will then
ask themselves why their own government is preventing them from achieving
something similar.
Yeltsov points out that the views he
has expressed are his own and do not necessarily represent those of the
National Defense University or the US government.
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