Paul
Goble
Staunton, November 4 – Moscow is
celebrating what it sees as foreign policy triumphs, advances that have made it
“’the chief supplier of stability and security in the world;’” but ever more
leaders abroad are tired of Russia, viewing it as a doomed anachronism and its
claimed achievements as containing the seeds of future defeats, Liliya
Shevtsova says.
Kremlin outlets point to the
dividing up of Syria with Turkey’s Erdogan, the forcing of Kyiv to accept
Vladimir Putin’s conditions, and gaining the support of French President Macron
as evidence of what it considers to be Russia’s new and enhanced status in the
world. But these things don’t mean what
Moscow thinks they do (echo.msk.ru/blog/shevtsova/2531261-echo/)..
On the one hand, the West is clearly
tired of dealing with Russia and sees it as increasingly marginal. When US
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo outlined his vision of the world in the coming
years, he did not even mention Russia. Instead, he talked exclusively about
China, hardly what one would expect if Russia really were back.
And on the other, Shevtsova
continues, “the Russian victories appear to be warnings of future problems.
Even pro-Kremlin observers recognize that Russia, “having seized a number of
‘commanding heights’ in international politics, will encounter problems with
holding them” for very long.
Moscow’s Syria success is by the day
becoming less than it was. Kyiv isn’t following Putin’s script because
otherwise Vladimir Zelensky would face a new Maidan. And Macron has his own reasons
for cozying up to Moscow that have nothing to do with Russia’s supposed growing
status in the world.
Moreover, the Russian commentator
says, polls show that people in the West view Russia in extremely negative
terms as an alien outsider that one may talk to but can’t expect anything
positive from. Indeed, Western Russia experts now have to talk about that
country as a threat in order to get any attention.
It is bad enough that people in the
West have ceased to respect and believe us. It is worse that “they consider us
hopeless” and that the world is “tired of us. There isn’t even any special
desire to engage in a confrontation with us.” Thus, any talks between Moscow
and the West now have little chance of leading to any breakthrough.
Russia
can influence the West, of course, by exploiting the friendship of this or that
leader. But that too has its limits: Few leaders are going to want to have much
to do with Moscow if a summit meeting will lead to their “political suicide.” A Putin-Trump summit, for example, would just
provide “a new basis for the impeachment of the latter.”
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