Paul
Goble
Staunton, August 9 – At the end of
Soviet times, the interior ministry often brought in militiamen from outside Moscow
to counter protests in the capital. Most assumed that they did so because the
regional police could be counted on to treat protesters with less deference
than would their Moscow counterparts.
That may still be true, but a
special on political psychology who earlier served as an advisor to a CPSU Central
Committee secretary, speaking to Snob on
condition of anonymity, says that there are at least two other reasons that the
powers that be are bringing in police from the hinterlands (snob.ru/entry/181092/).
“First of all,” he says, “there is a
need to provide instruction for the provincial structures: if where they serve
is quiet, this means that they need to be trained in a place where it isn’t.”
That certainly describes Moscow today.
And it is also likely, he suggests, Moscow forces are overstretched and don’t
have enough cadres. So they bring in people from the regions.
The political psychology expert
expressed his opinion about a variety of other questions as well. He suggested
that the protests taking place now are a trial run for both the opposition and
the authorities in anticipation of what may happen in the runup to the 2021
Duma vote and the 2024 presidential elections.
As to why Russians are coming out to
the protests now, he continued, there are three categories of people at the meetings
and a fourth that should be but isn’t. The first wants the adrenalin rush of
taking part in a mass meeting, the second seeks to be involved in whatever is
going no, and the third comes out of pure curiosity.
According to the expert, there should
be a fourth category but so far there isn’t. This would include those who have
made a conscious choice to take part in support of “a definite political line.”
The problem is “not in people, but in the absence of such a line.” The issue of
registering candidates can’t be that: it will be irrelevant after September 8.
The siloviki are using force as part
of “a reconnaissance by force” of what they may be up against in 2021 or 2024
as well as because different segments of the force structures are in
competition with each other and officers within any one service are seeking the
approval and preferment from their superiors.
In another comment, the expert says that
there are several reasons why the siloviki go after journalists. “Frightening
journalists is never harmful,” he begins.
Some who are frightened won’t come to future protests and that will
limit the coverage such actions get. Moreover,
going after one journalist may be a test of where his support lies.
And sometimes, he says, “the purely
personal” may play a role. “It is
possible that a specific journalist may have crossed the line of one of the siloviki
and an order ‘from above’ is given to arrest him.” Or the whole thing may be “more
prosaic: a policeman dispersing the meeting may simply not like a particular
correspondent.”
No comments:
Post a Comment