Migration Unlikely to Assume Center Stage in Russian Politics in 2020, Abashin Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, January 4 – Surveys showing continuing hostility among Russians toward immigrants and the likelihood that there will be more such people coming into Russian cities given the country’s demographic problems, migration is unlikely to assume the central role it had in Russian politics in 2013, according to Sergey Abashin.

            The ethnographer at St. Petersburg’s European University says there is no question that Russians remain sensitive to this issue and the ebbing of attention toward Ukraine means that they are focusing increasingly on domestic issues, including the presence of those from elsewhere (liberal.ru/authors-projects/vernetsya-li-tema-migracii-v-rossiiskuu-politiku-v-2020-godu).

            But there are two compelling reasons to think that migrantophobia is not about to explode and dominate public life in Russia in the next 12 to 18 months. On the one hand, Abashin says, immigration is far down the list of items of concern among Russians; and unless they are manipulated to think about it, their attitudes while negative are not intense.

            And on the other, the authorities are certain to do what they can to prevent migration from becoming a central issue in the upcoming Duma elections because the entrance of that issue into public discourse could have explosive, unexpected and very much unwelcome consequences as far as the powers that be are concerned.

            Consequently, the St. Petersburg expert says, despite the expectations of some, the migration issue is likely to “smolder;” but it is unlikely to become in 2020 “the main social and political problem” in Russia – unless something untoward happens and one or another political leader or group decides to try to exploit it.