Paul
Goble
Staunton, August 13 – The excessive use
of force by siloviki elements against Moscow protesters was not the product of
panic among the authorities, Alexander Hotz says. Instead, it was a provocation
by the siloviki to “occupy the commanding heights” at the start of a succession
struggle within the Putin regime, a regime that increasingly resembles a junta.
In a Facebook post, the Russian commentator
from Tula says that the Russian force structures did what they did in order to
provoke the opposition and then demonstrate their capacity to defeat anything
that the protesters might do, thus winning preferment within the regime (facebook.com/alexandr.hotz/posts/1468757679930573).
Hotz argues that “the struggle for ‘the
heights’ is connected with the beginning of a real fight among the clans for
the place of successor.” The best way for the siloviki to seize that position
is to “imitate ‘mass disorders’” which only they can put down. But this
development has another consequence: it makes Putin “a lame duck” dependent on
the siloviki.
“The aging dictator is condemned to
operate on the winner of this internal vendetta to the extent that he is not
capable any longer of preserving the former balance between ‘the economic elite’
and the ‘oprichnik’ defenders.” As a result of the weakness of the former, the
latter have gained influence and power.
It thus is becoming likely that the
next few years will see a constant “’rocking of the boat’” with both a growth
of protests and a growth of repression. In this worst case, this will lead to “a
creeping ‘Chechenization’ of the regime,” with massive numbers of disappearances
and the flight of thousands abroad.
At the very least, the logic of the situation
points toward the formation of a junta, one in which those who control coercive
force will be of decisive importance. In
the short term, the situation for the population will deteriorate. But there is
a reason for optimism: such a scenario is “the direct and shortest path to the collapse
of the system.”
In fact, “the junta-ization of ‘Putinism’ has some natural limits,” Hotz
says. Sooner or later, peaceful protests will grow so large that responding to
it by force will become increasingly counter-productive. And that in turn will
lead to the defeat of the junta in ways that will recall the end of the Soviet
Union.
There could
very well be as a result a repetition of “the ‘Soviet’ model of imperial
collapse familiar to members of my generation,” Hotz says. “Young people will have the chance to repeat
our experience.”
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