Paul Goble
Staunton,
June 19 – The Russian government should dispense with the mass draft because
keeping it is blocking the technological advance of the armed forces and keeping
those drafted from acquiring the skills needed to advance the Russian economy when
they finish service, sociologist Sergey Belanovsky says.
This
double whammy, the director of research at the Moscow Center for Strategic
Planning argues, can best be avoided by ending the draft, relying on volunteers,
forcing the military to modernize, and providing more training to those
entering the workforce (sbelan.ru/Research-Presentations/Efficiency-use-labor-resources-in-armed-forces-of-the-Russian-Federation.pdf).
In his 22-page study and in the
summary in Novyye izvestiya today (newizv.ru/article/general/19-06-2018/sotsiolog-sohranyat-vseobschuyu-voinskuyu-obyazannost-srodni-bezumiyu),
Belanovsky supports his positions with detailed sociological data about the military,
the economy and the cohort of men aged 18 to 25.
Belanovsky’s argument has been made
repeatedly by Western observers and some Russian economists who note that because
the Russian army has traditionally relied on numbers rather than technology,
officers have less incentive to shift to labor-saving technologies that could
make the military a more effective force.
And both groups have pointed to the
way in which military service, even when reduced to 12 months as now, has the
effect of leaving new entrants two the workforce less prepared than they would
otherwise be. In all too many cases, their military service does not prepare
them for any job more technologically advanced than a janitor or guard.
In the past and despite the recognition
of the political leadership of these two factors, there are at least two
reasons why the Kremlin may be more prepared to accept this argument now than
in the past. On the one hand, Putin has
said he wants to end the draft and so advocates of that start with a real
advantage.
And on the other, the declining size
of the draft-age cohort means that if the military continues to take large
numbers out of it, this will have a serious and negative impact on the Russian
economy, at the very least making it far more difficult for Moscow to pursue
the economic breakthrough the Kremlin insists it needs.
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