Paul Goble
Staunton,
June 19 – The decision to raise the pension age, formally announced by the
government but undoubtedly approved by Vladimir Putin, has done what many had
thought impossible: it not only has united the Russian people against their
government but it has prompted opposition figures and union leader to behave as
they should.
As
commentator Aleksey Melnikov notes, the pension plan fiasco is “unique” in
Russian history because it directly affects “the material interests of tens of
millions of people” all at once and in ways that they understand (aleks-melnikov.livejournal.com/528575.html).
Putin has thereby “achieved the
impossible, in one moment drawing into politics the broadest masses of Russian
citizens, including those who haven’t voted for anti-Putin parties, taken part
in political meetings and are indifferent to the arrests of opposition figures,
the commentator continues.
Moreover, by taking this poorly
thought out action, Putin has told Russians both that “social stability is at
an end” and that “the political opponents of Putin have been right in
everything.” That is creating a sea change in Russia, but whether this
revolutionary situation will lead to a revolution remains unclear.
It is certainly true, Melnikov says,
that Russians are asking whether the policy they see being imposed reflects the
political and economic system which exists under Putin. “And this is a revolutionary question.” Increasingly, they are drawing that
conclusion and coming to see that “this system will be destroyed. Sooner or
later.”
Putin and his siloviki may be able to hold things in check for a longer time than
one might expect, but in the end, the results will be the same as they were for
the Russian Empire and the USSR. Putin is responsible for this, and for that,
those who want a better future for Russia and Russians should be grateful, the
commentator says.
Melnikov almost certainly overstates
his case and underestimates the resources of the Putin autocracy, but three
developments this week support his view that the Russian people and their
possible leaders have been transformed by what Putin has incautiously done
after promising never to do it. They
include:
First, polls show that 92 percent of
Russians oppose raising the pension age, and nearly two million have signed
petitions to the government against that step, a greater unanimity than even
Putin himself has ever achieved with all his political technology and
repression (svoboda.org/a/29296510.html).
Second, leaders of the opposition
and leaders of the trade unions are being to act like they should, coming out
against a government policy that hurts the people. They have organized some
demonstrations and have announced more in the coming weeks; and now they may
have the people behind them (echo.msk.ru/blog/corruption/2224438-echo/, graniru.org/Politics/Russia/activism/m.270948.html
and kasparov.ru/material.php?id=5B279EEBB89EF).
And third, unlike many opposition
enterprises in the past, this movement is drawing support not only from the two
capitals but from cities and villages across the Russian Federation, something
that will present a far greater challenge to the regime than it has faced in
the past (kommersant.ru/doc/3661966).
Moreover, the regime’s response is only making
the situation worse. Russian officials have been insisting that pensions for
those who get them will go up significantly if they continue to work a few more
years. That notion is falling on deaf
ears for both demographic and cultural reasons.
On the one hand, many Russians, especially
men, won’t live to get any pension. In the Russian Far East, for example, fewer
than half will do so if the pension age goes up. In short, they will pay into
the system with their taxes but get no benefits at all. The government will
thus keep it all.
(For useful discussions on the
demographics of pension reform, see kp.ru/daily/26843/3885028/, newizv.ru/article/general/18-06-2018/v-kakih-regionah-rossii-muzhiki-do-pensii-dozhivayut
and kavkazr.com/a/kavkazcy-mogut-dozhit-do-pensii/29294906.html,)
And on the other hand, concern about
gaining a pension and living for a few years has been embedded in the minds of
most Russians as the closet thing to a communist utopia any of them are going
to see. Taking that away is a surefire means of infuriating them beyond the
point of any explanation.
As one thoughtful analyst puts it, one
could raise the pension age in other countries without political fallout, but
in Russia, because of its specific Soviet past, doing so, especially in the radical
way Moscow has chosen to, will inevitably be not only unpopular but something
that will snap the ties between the people and the state (nakanune.ru/articles/114043/).
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