Paul Goble
Staunton,
June 29 – As soon as the Putin regime ceases to “offer destructive incentives,”
Dmitry Travin says, “even the most
conformist Russians will find it easy to transform themselves into citizens of
the civilized world,” his answer to the increasingly frequent queries as to “who
is guilty: Putin or Russia?”
In a Rosbalt commentary that the professor at St.
Petersburg’s European University says that he is not speaking to those who want
to cast blame but rather to those who want to understand what is going on in
Russia today and what the country’s prospects are for the future (rosbalt.ru/blogs/2018/06/29/1713631.html).
Since antiquity,
he points out, people have argued whether a people always gets the government
it deserves or whether the government is so powerful that it can bend the population
to its will and thus bears total responsibility for what happens with the people
reduced to an irrelevancy.
It matters profoundly which view people
and governments have, Travin says. If
the people are totally responsible for what is happening in the country now, he
continues, then “it turns out that Russia is hopeless. We will have an eternal
stagnation in the economy with only those close to the Kremlin getting rich.”
And that means, he continues, that “each
who does not want to live under those conditions must flee abroad. But if the government is to blame, then there
is hope because the people can support a very different kind of regime and system
in the future – if they work for it, Travin argues.
A first glance suggests that the
Russian people have “precisely what they deserve. We go to the polls, we vote,
we support one and the same kind of rulers again and again although our lives don’t
become better.” The people don’t work better because they have few incentives,
this view holds, and they have no interest in simply enriching those in power.
What Russians must
remember, however, is that they aren’t building communism anymore. They are developing
a market economy. And “in a market economy, be it ours or that of the Finns or
the Americans, people seek to conduct themselves rationally, that is, they work
exactly where it is profitable to do so.”
It is another
question entirely, Travin continues, that “in some countries it is profitable
to create a business, to increase one’s qualifications, and to invest money in
long-term projects, while in others, the reverse is true.” In the latter, it is
more profitable to seek part of the rents that the regime collects.
Unfortunately, Russia’s “case is the second one.”
What that means is this: “our people
conduct themselves approximately as do people in other market economies: they
go where things are better and where they are led to do so by the stimuli available.”
Unfortunately, the government “having established a system of anti-stimuli is
forcing society not to work but to seek to seize.”
Finns and Americans “put in analogous
situations,” would do the same” because “a market economy with good institutions,
that is, rules of the game, is a means to become richer” but “a market economy
under conditions of bad institutions is a path to degradation,” the path Russia
is now on.
And he adds that a similar calculus
holds in politics. Russians vote for Putin because it is more rational to do so
than to vote for those the Kremlin has ensured have no chance of gaining office
and who in all too many cases are “clowns” who would perform perhaps even worse
than the incumbent, Travin continues.
“Our voter fears chaos in just the
same way the successful citizen of any Western country does,” he says. The
difference is this: Putin has managed to convince people that they would suffer
far more without his patronage than is in fact the case. As a result, they sit
still for what they shouldn’t.
“Both Germans and other peoples have
at various times completely deserved the cannibalistic governments they
created. And they conducted themselves with regard to these governments in a
completely rational manner … For example, they killed Jews because such cruelty
was then rewarded.”
“But when the powers changed, the
Germans in an instance began to build a civilized society with democracy and
tolerance” because in that society, these things were rewarded. Such a rapid
shift, of course, is morally troubling; but it is an indication of what is
possible when the rules of the game imposed from above change radically.
Not every people is capable of
building democracy at every point, Travin acknowledges. “Normal development is usually
impossible when irrational behavior openly dominates over the rational in
society.”
A century ago, he writes,
“the passions, motives and fantastic dreams of the broad masses clearly
dominated over the efforts of a small part of society to build a market economy
and democracy” in Russia and the result was the Soviet system.
“But today everything is reversed,”
Travin says. “The masses have become extremely rational, indeed at seems, they
seem excessively so. Rationalism leads to conformism and submission.” Irrationalism is in power. But “just like
other peoples in the past, pragmatic, rational and conformist Russians can
easily transform themselves into normal citizens of the civilized world.”
The only requirement is that the
powers that be must stop imposing “destructive incentives.” Then, “normal
elections will allow for people to think about which candidates are better” and
“a normal economy will lead to the production of goods the population needs”
rather than those that only benefit a thieving state.
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