Paul Goble
Staunton,
June 29 – Many complain that the Russian opposition has failed to unite to
fight the Putin regime, Kseniya Kirillova says; but they forget two things: On
the one hand, a pluralism of opinions is natural among democrats; and on the
other, the Putin regime has taken specific steps to keep the opposition divided
and isolated from the population.
In
many ways, the US-based Russian analyst says, the opposition has progressed
since the 1990s. At that time, being a liberal or a human rights activist was “’fashionable’”
and many identified with those terms without being committed to the ideas
behind them. Now most of those people have fallen away (svoboda.org/a/29293046.html).
Some
remained at least until 2012 while it was still possible to be “’a career
liberal,’” but in the main, these people have shifted and either exited from
politics altogether or become government loyalists. That reduced the size of the opposition and
divided it, but fortunately, these “accidental” people have been replaced by
others genuinely concerned about their country.
The
exit of the one was accelerated by increasing government repression, especially
after 2014 and Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, Kirillova says. And that repression took the form not only of
harassment and arrests but of the regime’s active measures to discredit “not
only individuals but the [democratic] movement as a whole and even the terms ‘liberalism’
and ‘democracy.’”
Unfortunately,
she continues, “the majority of opposition activists noted these trends too
late and turned out to be unprepared to counter them.” And thus they were not
able to build on the influx of new supporters among Russians who were sincerely
against Putin’s wars abroad and totalitarianism at home.
“These
ordinary homemakers and sales clerks, who were prepared to go to court for
their convictions, students and pupils who participated in meetings along with famous
dissidents and risk their lives for their unwillingness to go alone, it
appeared, appeared to be capable of establishing a new core of the democratic
movement.”
That
was all the more so the case, Kirillova argues, because “many protest leaders
in recent years have recognized their former errors and begun to speak with the
population about serious social problems, in a number of cases, with success.”
But the Putin regime has responded in ways that have limited this possibility
On
the one hand, it drove into emigration or silence almost all those who weren’t
prepared to compromise with it on foreign policy at least; and on the other, it
left “’alive and free’” only those who were prepared to try to find some common
ground, a combination that divided the opposition in new ways.
The
Russian state’s repressive actions “radicalized and marginalized” some in the
opposition, but they also led others to seek a modus vivendi that would allow
them to continue to work and still a third group to exit from protests altogether.
In combination, these things helped keep the opposition from uniting against
the Putin regime.
“Today,
those who are dissatisfied in Russia are divided by their views, their goals
and by their methods of action,” she says. “The overwhelming majority of
protest actions today are organized by the Aleksey Navalny’s command.” They typically
focus on corruption and do not mention foreign policy, a compromise of a sorts.
But
“a segment of Russian citizens inclined to protest still have not accepted
compromises on issues like Crimea, the Donbass, and other crimes of the Russian
state. Many of them react negatively to those who participate in
anti-corruption protests” for that reason. They see the latter as having sold out.
But
this group has its own problems. It is the chief target of repression and it
does not have a leader because all those who were most prominently associated with
this position have been “forced to emigrate.”
Even among these, however, there is no unity among its members about how
to conduct opposition activity.
“Under
conditions of constant pressure by the secret services, by provocations and by
arrests, the level of mutual distrust among opposition figures is growing at
all levels.” Often, members of one group view members of another “not as
opponents but as hired agents of the FSB,” a plausible charge in some cases
because the FSB does put its agents in opposition groups.
Russian
opposition groups are also divided on how to proceed. Some favor boycotts of
elections while others insist that they can only succeed by taking part; and
that difference in opinion also has become “a catalyst for mutual suspicions,”
Kirillova suggests.
But
there is yet another division which the regime works to exploit in order to
keep the opposition divided and isolated.
Increasingly, protests are undertaken by specific groups seeking to
improve their own situation. And the government uses this to try to suggest
that all protesters are engaged in essentially selfish actions and that others should
turn away from them.
As
yet, very few Russians are ready to show solidarity to others especially if by
avoiding doing so they can avoid being targets for government repression. They feel pleased that they have escaped punishment
because “they are not supporters of Ukraine, not opposition figures, not
long-haul drivers, not Jehovah’s Witnesses” and so on and on.
They
are thus the latest in a long line of those Pastor Niemoeller described as
being pleased that no one had come for them because they weren’t members of one
or another group only to discover in the end that when the state came for them,
there was no one left to speak out on their behalf.
As a result of all this, Kirillova says, the Russian
democratic movement today finds itself in “a paradoxical situation.” It has far
fewer hangers on than it did 25 years ago, but it remains even more divided as
a result not only of government policies directed against it but also the as
the regime’s efforts to undermine the moral values behind such a movement.
“The
fear, cynicism and distrust” the regime has promoted, she concludes, “has led
the majority of the population to cling to the false stability” the Kremlin claims
it has created; and “the opposition as before doesn’t have the strength to overcome
the divisions” natural and otherwise that the situation in Russia today promotes.
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