Paul
Goble
Staunton, June 21 – Russian media
outlets are giving prominent play to a report by the US Bureau of the Census
that “for the first time in the entire history of the United States, the white
population has been contracting” over the last two years, sometimes illustrating
such stories with pictures of Ku Klux Klan members (vz.ru/news/2018/6/21/928864.print.html).
Between 2015 and 2016, the number of
those the Census Bureau counts as non-Hispanic whites declined by 31,516, a
trend that has accelerated over the last year. Their total number now stands at
197,800,000. Meanwhile, the number of Hispanics increased by 2.1 percent, the
number of Black Americans by 1.2 percent, and those of Asian origin by 3.1
percent.
Not only are the number of white
Americans declining, but they are becoming older with their average age equally
43.5 years. Those from Latin America in contrast have an average age of 29.3
percent, a difference that has serious consequences for the future birthrate
given that whites are now older than the prime childbearing cohort while
Hispanics are in the middle.
Analysts at the Census Bureau say
that whites will become “a national minority” in the United States before 2045.
This demographic sea change helps to
explain much of the political turbulence that has roiled US politics over the
last several years, turbulence that Moscow has done what it can to intensify. Groups
that feel they are about to be displaced from their dominant position often
behave worse and more defensively than those who sense they are on the rise.
But in reading about this trend in
the United States, Russians can hardly avoid thinking that a similar trend is
at work in the Russian Federation. Ethnic Russians while forming a larger share
of the population of that country than whites do in the US nonetheless are in
decline as well, while non-Russians and especially Muslims are growing more
rapidly.
Consequently, some of the turbulence
that Moscow sees and has backed in the United States will soon be coming to
Russia as well, leading to the emergence of more “Russia for the Russians
sentiment,” an idea the Kremlin recognizes as dangerous but may soon feel it
has no choice but to play to.
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