Paul
Goble
Staunton, October
29 – Ukraine’s Orthodox gained autocephaly after Kyiv threw its weight behind
those in the church who did not want to remain subordinate to Moscow. Now, the
same thing has happened in Latvia; and the result in that Baltic country is
likely to be the same as well, another defeat for the Moscow Patriarchate and
the Kremlin standing behind it.
Since recovering de facto
independence in 1991, the Latvian government had maintained a policy of one
registered church for each denomination, giving advantages to the Latvian Orthodox
Church of the Moscow Patriarchate, which it registered, and thus freezing out all
its competitors, including the Latvian Orthodox Autonomous Church from gaining
power.
But five days ago, the Latvian
justice ministry, following a decision by the Latvian Supreme Court which held
that the government’s “one denomination, one registration” policy was unconstitutional,
registered the LOAC which is subordinate to the Universal Patriarchate in Constantinople.
That registration is t be celebrated November 18, Latvia’s national day.
At the very least, that sets the
stage for the situation in Latvia to become like the one in Estonia where there
are two Orthodox churches, one subordinate to Moscow and one not (jamestown.org/program/will-latvia-follow-the-estonian-or-the-ukrainian-path-in-orthodox-church-affairs/
and windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2019/06/is-latvia-going-to-be-next-to-seek.html).
But now the Religion Today
telegram channel argues that there are two compelling reasons, in addition to the
changed position of the Latvian government, to assume that the LOAC will in
fact achieve what the Ukrainian Orthodox Church has and become the independent national
church of Latvia (t.me/religiontoday/479).
On the one hand, Constantinople is
playing it cool, avoiding any comment that could provoke Moscow and believing
that the nationalizing processes within Orthodoxy will continue to work in its
favor. And on the other, the Latvian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate
lacks any leader capable of resisting a change if the Latvian government wants
it.
For more than 20 years, the LOC MP
has been more loyal to Latvia than to Moscow, seeing such loyalty as the price
it has to pay to continuing to exist.
But now it appears even that loyalty is no longer enough to guarantee
that Riga will support it against all comers – and especially against the now-registered
LOAC.
This long period of cooperation and
the aging leadership of the LOC MP, a leadership that under Latvian law cannot
be replaced by anyone who is not a Latvian citizen and who has lived in Latvia
for at least ten years immediately prior to elevation, simply isn’t up to the
task of defending the Moscow Patriarchate’s position there.
What this means, the telegram
channel continues, is that “if Constantinople together with the civil authorities
want to launch a Ukrainian scenario in Latvia, they are unlikely to face a
serious response from the LOC MP.” And
that means that even more quickly than in Ukraine, autocephaly will occur and be
implemented by the LOAC, dealing a serious blow to Moscow.
For a useful discussion of the background
of the LOAC, the church now likely to win out at Moscow’s expense, see gazeta.ua/ru/articles/culture/_stanovlenie-latvijskoj-avtonomnoj-pravoslavnoj-cerkvi-kak-eto-bylo-i-pochemu-oni-nazyvayut-sebya-priverzhencami-konstantinopolya/935472.
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