Paul
Goble
Staunton, March 25 – Everything Russian
officials say about labor migration is “a lie,” Ruslan Gorevoy says, from the
numbers of such people, which they dramatically understate to the impact they
have on Russian workers, which they ignore, to the amount of money which they
send home rather than spend where they earn it.
The last figure, the Versiya commentator says, is truly
horrific. In contrast to Russian official claims that migrant workers sent home
only about 10 billion US dollars, figures from various sources show that they dispatched
“no less than 50 billion” in 2018 alone
(versia.ru/migrantov-v-rossii-perestali-schitat-a-oni-vyvozyat-po-10-milliardov-dollarov-v-god-tolko-po-oficialnym-kanalam).
To comprehend just how much money
that is, Gorevoy says, it is an amount that would pay for 15 Crimea bridges;
and consequently, he says, the role of migrant workers in Russia is
increasingly becoming that of “a new yoke” under which ordinary Russians are
being compelled to exist because of the actions of their own rulers.
But that cost pales before what he
says is a rise in crimes committed by immigrants, the way in which they keep
wages low or take jobs from Russians, or threaten to overwhelm Russia
demographically by dramatically increasing the Muslim share of the population
in the coming decades.
Gorevoy himself is in almost all
cases overstating these threats, but his article is a useful reminder that the
Russian government has been lying about the role of immigrant workers – and that
now, someone who considers its statistics carefully, can document that fact
even if there is the risk of falling into the other extreme.
And his article is both explains why
xenophobia against immigrants as such is rising in Russia and represents an early
warning about the impact of the Putin government’s plans to bring in 10 million
more migrant workers to save the economy from the consequences of the indigenous
population’s demographic collapse.
If Gorevoy is right even in part,
the consequences of the Kremlin’s plan will not be to save the economy but to
spark the kind of social and ethnic unrest that will make Russia ungovernable
except at levels of coercion that will make the economic development that plan
is supposed to promote impossible to achieve.
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