Paul
Goble
Staunton, July 27 – In the streets
of Moscow today, Russian civil society won “a large and unexpected victory” when
the powers that be attacked them and showed that they have adopted the
invariably losing slogan of “let them hate us as long as they fear us,” Yuliya
Latynina says.
That has been the slogan of many
despots, the Russian commentator points out on her “Access Code” program, and it
has never worked for long. Instead, it has led them to take actions like today’s
in which the beating of women and children only adds to the number of people
who stand against them (echo.msk.ru/programs/code/2471509-echo/).
Vladimir Putin only
made matters worse for himself by choosing to go down in a submarine, an action
that might have impressed people had there been only a few hundred demonstrators,
Latynina says. But his plans backfired
on him by providing yet another “absolutely symbolic picture” of his isolation from
the population and from reality.
In Moscow there was what almost amounted
to an uprising “because very many of those who came understood very well that
no agreement was going to be possible because the powers that be were burning
the bridges behind them” not yet by shooting at the people but behaving as
Nicholas II did at the time of the Khodynka fields disaster.
There is a further problem with the Putin
regime, Latynina says. Stalin was incomparably more harsh than the current Kremlin
ruler was but he offered the population some ideals. They were “absolutely
false, but these ideals mobilized a significant number of people so that they
loved Soviet power in a completely sincere way even if this love was reinforced
by horror.”
Putin is not yet as repressive but
he has nothing of that kind of ideology to offer, she argues. That means that
when things are deteriorating as they are, Russians are going to be alienated
rather than attracted to the powers that be – and that is exactly what is
happening in Moscow now.
Having lost the middle class, the
Putin regime is on its way to losing the lumpen who have been supporting it. It
is becoming ever more reliant on the siloviki; but how long it can rule on the
basis of them alone is an open question. And it has lost forever the young who
are the rising generation even as the powers that be grow ever older.
However, what is most immediately on
view, Latynina argues, is that Putin has lost a mechanism that had worked to
his benefit in the past – elections. However falsified they have been, they did
legitimate him and his regime. By adopting
the position they have on the Moscow city council vote, “the powers that be
have miscalculated.”
Latynina says she has good news and bad
news for Russia. The bad news is that the regime has “declared war on the people”
not just the opposition but the people as a whole, by making a mockery of
elections it can no longer be sure to win and organizing an internal army to
fight them.
But the good news is that by doing
so, the powers that be are rapidly losing any legitimacy they had – and doing
everything necessary to ensure that they will not recover it but have to be
replaced completely. “When the powers
could win elections, they did. Now we see that they really can’t” – and that
leads ever more Russians to draw the obvious conclusions.
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