Paul
Goble
Staunton, June 1 – Many Ukrainians
and their supporters abroad talk about the possibility of the peaceful return
of Crimea to Ukrainian control at some point in the future, but such talk,
while possibly understandable ignores the fact that Moscow is changing Crimea so
dramatically that there will soon be no Crimea to return, according to Petr
Oleshchuk.
In “Novoye vremya” today, the Kyiv
political scientist says that he understands perfectly well how “catastrophic”
would be any attempt at a military return of Crimea. But he argues that “to lie
about ‘a peaceful path’ is simply irresponsible with regard to Ukrainians.
There is no ‘peaceful path’” (nv.ua/opinion/oleschuk/skoro-krym-stanet-sovershenno-drugim-51365.html).
It is of course possible to speak
about Russia’s occupation of Crimea de facto while refusing to recognize it de
jure. “Apparently, there is now no other way. But why sow in society false
hopes and not prepare it for a struggle,” especially given what the Russian
occupation authorities are doing to transform the Ukrainian peninsula into
something else.
Oleshchuk makes five points in this
regard: First, he points out, “Russia is
completely changing the composition of the population. Mass shifts are taking
place already now. After a certain time, Crime will be completely different
demographically. And there will not be an ounce of Ukrainian in it.”
Second, he argues, the imposition of
anti-Ukrainian attitudes “after a few years will yield a generation which it
would be impossible to reintegrate into Ukrainian society.” Third, “as a
democratic state, Ukraine cannot solve its problems by deportations. But it
also will not be able to integrate such an enclave.”
Fourth, “every day, the development
of the economy in the various systems is leading to a situation in which it
will be practically impossible to combine into one again.” (In support of this, “Novaya gazeta” today
describes the way in which Moscow is making Russian-occupied Crimea a
money-laundering hub (novayagazeta.ru/inquests/68624.html).
And
fifth, for Crimea to return to Ukraine, it would be necessary for Russia to
descend into the kind of “government crisis in which no one in the world is
seriously interested.” In short,
Oleshchuk says, there is no reason to accept the idea that Crimea will somehow
miraculously and peacefully return to Ukraine.
Additional
evidence for his position, the Kyiv political scientist says, is provided by
the continuing existence of “two Chinas, two Koreas, two Cypruses, and so on.” And he concludes that “it is not excluded”
that in the decades ahead, “the issue of the return of Crimea” will agitate
Ukrainians in much the same way the unification of the two Koreas agitates
Koreans.
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