Rosstat May Be Understating Rate of Russia’s Demographic Decline by as Much as 10 Percent

Paul Goble

            Staunton, March 16 – As negative as Rosstat’s figures are for Russia’s demographic problems in recent months (windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2019/03/economic-crisis-talk-of-war-making.html), the real figures are likely five to ten percent worse than the Russian statistical agency is reporting, according to a blogger who compares Rosstat numbers with other statistics.

            The blogger, who posts under the screen name Burckina, compared Rosstat numbers for seven predominantly ethnic Russian regions (Belgorod, Vladimir, Ivanovo, Saratov, Tula, Kostroma, and Tambov) with the figures of the registration offices in these same oblasts. The results are disturbing (burckina-new.livejournal.com/1627168.html).

            In every case, the decline in total population in January of this year was from 89,500 to 103,800 greater according to the registration offices (ZAGS) than according to Rosstat. If the former figures are correct, then that means both the overall decline of the population of the Russian Federation and the decline in the number of ethnic Russians is far steeper than Moscow is admitting.

            That in turn means that the population of the country is going to get smaller faster than Russian officials acknowledge and, more seriously, that the share of ethnic Russians in that population is going to get smaller even faster, something that in many regions will change the ethnic balance against Moscow.

            That Rosstat routinely falsifies numbers is commonly recognized and that it has been especially inclined to do so after the withering criticism it received last year for being too negative and after a new director was appointed. But the comparison with ZAGS figures nonetheless should be treated with caution.

            ZAGS data in Russia are also prone to inaccuracies and especially to late reporting. To give but one example, if an oblast registration office did not include births in one month but listed them in the next, it might overstate a decline in population in the earlier month. That problem may be especially likely during January with the long winter holiday.

            But at the same time, this comparison of figures is important as a reminder that Russian statistics and especially Rosstat statistics should be used with caution and that the demographic decline of Russia is something very real and very likely far worse than anyone in or near the Kremlin wants to face.