Paul
Goble
Staunton, June 3 – It is now common
ground among demographers that the size of the Russian workforce is currently
declining by roughly a million a year and will do so for the next several decades,
and it is recognized the falling birthrates are reducing the size of the
population as a whole and making it more difficult for Moscow to meet its draft
quotas.
What is less widely appreciated is
the impact this demographic decline is having on key institutions like schools
and higher educational institutions. The number of pupils in schools has fallen
by more than 20 percent since Vladimir Putin became president; and the number
of students in higher educational institutions by even more (lenta.ru/news/2018/06/02/yama/).
That has the potential to save the
government money in the short term, but it has very serious negative
consequences over the longer term because it means that there will be fewer new
entrants to the workforce with the most contemporary training, thus imposing
yet another drag on any economic modernization effort.
According to the authors of a new
government report, “over the last 17 years (from 2000 through the 2017/2018 academic
year), the number of school pupils has fallen by more than 21.7 percent. They add
that the number of students in higher educational institutions fell by “more
than 40 percent” sine 2009 (government.ru/news/32737/).
In reporting these
figures, the Lenta news agency quoted the observation of Yury Krupnov of the
Moscow Institute of Demography, Migration, and Regional Development that in the
coming years, “Russia faces a deeper demographic whole than even the one it was
confronted by in the 1990s.”
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