Wednesday, March 6, 2019

Kazakh Experts List Ten Most Important Trends in Central Asia During 2019


Paul Goble

            Staunton, March 6 – The Kazakhstan Council on International Relations has issued a report listing what its members collectively see as the ten most important trends likely to dominate the Central Asian region over the next 12 months, providing an important checklist for those who monitor the region

            As summarized on the Central Asian portal (ca-portal.ru/article:48554), the ten include:

1.      An intensification of geopolitical aftershocks from changes in the relations among Russia, China and the United States.

2.      A significant slowing of economic growth across the region from 5 to six percent a year to 4 to 4.3 percent in 2019.

3.      The countries of the region, including Turkmenistan, will seek greater cooperation with each other and with outside powers.

4.      New government reforms especially in Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan intended to compensate for social problems.

5.      New elections are scheduled in four of the countries, and they make take place out of order in Kazakhstan.

6.      The populations of the Central Asian countries will continue to grow as a result of continuing high birthrates and extended life expectancies but the growth will mean that 30 percent of the population of the region will be under 30, often a trend that leads to instability.

7.      An expansion of China’s role in the region and the growth of anti-Chinese attitudes in many places, a growth that is becoming intertwined with domestic political conflicts.

8.      Kyrgyzstan is likely to have the liveliest domestic politics of any of the five because of conflicts between the incumbent president and the former president.

9.      Terrorism is likely to remain a serious threat given domestic problems, the return of ISIS fighters from the Middle East, and spill over from Afghanistan. 

10.  Developments in Afghanistan are a wild card. If things deteriorate markedly there, Central Asian countries will be among the most seriously affected by that development. If things stabilize, the fears many now have about Afghanistan will fade. 

No comments:

Post a Comment