Paul
Goble
Staunton, March 6 – The Kazakhstan
Council on International Relations has issued a report listing what its members
collectively see as the ten most important trends likely to dominate the
Central Asian region over the next 12 months, providing an important checklist
for those who monitor the region
As summarized on the Central Asian
portal (ca-portal.ru/article:48554),
the ten include:
1.
An
intensification of geopolitical aftershocks from changes in the relations among
Russia, China and the United States.
2.
A
significant slowing of economic growth across the region from 5 to six percent
a year to 4 to 4.3 percent in 2019.
3.
The
countries of the region, including Turkmenistan, will seek greater cooperation
with each other and with outside powers.
4.
New
government reforms especially in Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan intended to
compensate for social problems.
5.
New
elections are scheduled in four of the countries, and they make take place out
of order in Kazakhstan.
6.
The
populations of the Central Asian countries will continue to grow as a result of
continuing high birthrates and extended life expectancies but the growth will
mean that 30 percent of the population of the region will be under 30, often a
trend that leads to instability.
7.
An
expansion of China’s role in the region and the growth of anti-Chinese
attitudes in many places, a growth that is becoming intertwined with domestic
political conflicts.
8.
Kyrgyzstan
is likely to have the liveliest domestic politics of any of the five because of
conflicts between the incumbent president and the former president.
9.
Terrorism
is likely to remain a serious threat given domestic problems, the return of
ISIS fighters from the Middle East, and spill over from Afghanistan.
10.
Developments in Afghanistan are a wild card.
If things deteriorate markedly there, Central Asian countries will be among the
most seriously affected by that development. If things stabilize, the fears
many now have about Afghanistan will fade.
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